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Voting after the Bombings: A Natural Experiment on the Effect of Terrorist Attacks on Democratic Elections

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  • José G. Montalvo

    (Universitat Pompeu Fabra(Barcelona GSE) and IVIE)

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    Abstract

    Can terrorist attacks be timed to change the outcome of democratic elections? In this paper, we analyze the electoral impact of the terrorist attacks of March 11, 2004, in Madrid. Studies using individual level postelectoral survey data reach contradictory conclusions. We propose an alternative approach. Since the bombings took place only three days before the 2004 congressional election, we can find a control group of individuals who cast their vote before the terrorist attacks. The results indicate that the attacks had an important electoral impact, rejecting the hypothesis that the identity of the winner was unaffected by the terrorist attacks. © 2011 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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    File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/REST_a_00115
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics and Statistics.

    Volume (Year): 93 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 4 (November)
    Pages: 1146-1154

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    Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:93:y:2011:i:4:p:1146-1154

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    Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/

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    Web: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journal-home.tcl?issn=00346535

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    Cited by:
    1. Saurabh Singhal & Rahul Nilakantan, 2012. "Naxalite Insurgency and the Economic Benefits of a Unique Robust Security Response," HiCN Working Papers 127, Households in Conflict Network.
    2. Ho Fai Chan & Bruno S. Frey & Jana Gallus & Benno Torgler, 2013. "Does The John Bates Clark Medal Boost Subsequent Productivity And Citation Success?," QuBE Working Papers 004, QUT Business School.
    3. Ildefonso Mendez & Isabel Cutillas, 2014. "Has immigration affected Spanish presidential elections results?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 135-171, January.
    4. Pau Castells & Francesc Trillas, 2013. "The effects of surprise political events on quoted firms: the March 2004 election in Spain," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 83-112, March.
    5. Ando, Michihito, 2013. "Estimating the effects of nuclear power facilities on local income levels: A quasi-experimental approach," Working Paper Series 2013:3, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.

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