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Cities and Warfare: The Impact of Terrorism on Urban Form

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Author Info
Edward L. Glaeser
Jesse M. Shapiro

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Abstract

What impact will terrorism have on America's cities? Historically, large-scale violence has impacted cities in three ways. First, concentrations of people have an advantage in defending themselves from attackers, making cities more appealing in times of violence. Second, cities often make attractive targets for violence, which creates an incentive for people to disperse. Finally, since warfare and terrorism often specifically target means of transportation, violence can increase the effective cost of transportation, which will usually increase the demand for density. Evidence on war and cities in the 20th century suggests that the effect of wars on urban form can be large (for example, Berlin in World War II), but more commonly neither terrorism nor wars have significantly altered urban form. As such, across America the effect of terrorism on cities is likely to be small. The only exception to this is downtown New York which, absent large-scale subsidies, will probably not be fully rebuilt. Furthermore, such subsidies make little sense to us.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8696.

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Date of creation: Dec 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8696

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R - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics

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  1. Carolyn Kousky & Erzo Luttmer & Richard Zeckhauser, 2006. "Private investment and government protection," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 73-100, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Gautier, Pieter A & Siegmann, Arjen & van Vuuren, Aico, 2007. "The Effect of the Theo van Gogh Murder on House Prices in Amsterdam," CEPR Discussion Papers 6175, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. V. Smith & Carol Mansfield & Laurel Clayton, 2009. "Valuing a homeland security policy: Countermeasures for the threats from shoulder mounted missiles," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 215-243, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. James Harrigan & Philippe Martin, 2002. "Terrorism and the resilience of cities," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Nov, pages 97-116. [Downloadable!]
  5. González-Val, Rafael & Lanaspa, Luis & Sanz, Fernando, 2008. "New Evidence on Gibrat’s Law for Cities," MPRA Paper 10411, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Alberto Abadie & Sofia Dermisi, 2006. "Is Terrorism Eroding Agglomeration Economies in Central Business Districts? Lessons from the Office Real Estate Market in Downtown Chicago," NBER Working Papers 12678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. V. Kerry Smith & Carol Mansfield & Laurel Clayton, 2008. "Valuing a Homeland Security Policy: Countermeasures for the Threats from Shoulder Mounted Missiles," NBER Working Papers 14325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bruno S. Frey & Simon Luechinger, . "Measuring Terrorism," IEW - Working Papers iewwp171, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
  9. Tilman Brück, 2004. "An Economic Analysis of Security Policies," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 456, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm & Steven Brakman, 2003. "The Strategic Bombing of German Cities during World War II and its Impact for Germany," Working Papers 03-09, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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