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A Search For Multiple Equilibria In Urban Industrial Structure

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Author Info
Donald R. Davis
David E. Weinstein

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Abstract

Theories featuring multiple equilibria are widespread across economics. Yet little empirical work has asked if multiple equilibria are features of real economies. We examine this in the context of the Allied bombing of Japanese cities and industries in World War II. We develop a new empirical test for multiple equilibria and apply it to data for 114 Japanese cities in eight manufacturing industries. The data provide no support for the existence of multiple equilibria. In the aftermath even of immense shocks, a city typically recovers not only its population and its share of aggregate manufacturing, but even the industries it had before. Copyright Blackwell Publishing, Inc. 2008

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9787.2008.00545.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Regional Science.

Volume (Year): 48 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 29-65
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:48:y:2008:i:1:p:29-65

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  2. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2002. "Bones, bombs and break points: The geography of economic activity," Discussion Papers 0102-02, Columbia University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Murphy, Kevin M & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1989. "Industrialization and the Big Push," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1003-26, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Paul A. David, . "Path Dependence, its critics, and the quest for 'historical economics'," Working Papers 00011, Stanford University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Andrea Moro, 2003. "The Effect Of Statistical Discrimination On Black-White Wage Inequality: Estimating A Model With Multiple Equilibria," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 467-500, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Redding, Stephen J & Sturm, Daniel M & Wolf, Nikolaus, 2007. "History and Industry Location: Evidence from German Airports," CEPR Discussion Papers 6345, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Stephen Redding, 2009. "The Empirics of New Economic Geography," CEP Discussion Papers dp0925, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Joshua Aizenman & Ilan Noy, 2006. "Prizes for Basic Research -- Human Capital, Economic Might and the Shadow of History," NBER Working Papers 12226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Ulrike Stierle-von Schütz, 2005. "Fiscal Design and the Location of Economic Activity," ERSA conference papers ersa05p539, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  5. Okuyama, Yasuhide & Sahin, Sebnem, 2009. "Impact estimation of disasters : a global aggregate for 1960 to 2007," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4963, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Pierre-Philippe Combes & Gilles Duranton & Laurent Gobillon & Sébastien Roux, 2007. "Estimating Agglomeration Economies with History, Geology, and Worker Effects," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Agglomeration National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Stephen Redding, 2009. "Economic Geography: A Review of the Theoretical and Empirical Literature," CEP Discussion Papers dp0904, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm & Steven Brakman, 2003. "The Strategic Bombing of German Cities during World War II and its Impact for Germany," Working Papers 03-09, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Maarten Bosker & Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm, 2005. "Looking for Multiple Equilibria when Geography Matters: German City Growth and the WWII Shock," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Maarten Bosker & Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm, 2006. "A Century of Shocks: The Evolution of the German City Size Distribution 1925 – 1999," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Head, Charles Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2003. "The Empirics of Agglomeration and Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 3985, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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