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The Macroeconomic Consequences of Terrorism

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Author Info
S. Brock Blomberg
Gregory Hess ()
Athanasios Orphanides

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Abstract

We perform an empirical investigation of the macroeconomic consequences of international terrorism and interactions with alternative forms of collective violence. Our analysis is based on a rich unbalanced panel data set with annual observations on 177 countries from 1968 to 2000, which brings together information from the Penn World Table dataset, the ITERATE dataset for terrorist events, and datasets of external and internal conflict. We explore these data with cross-sectional and panel growth regression analysis and a structural VAR model. We find that, on average, the incidence of terrorism may have an economically significant negative effect on growth, albeit one that is considerably smaller and less persistent than that associated with either external wars or internal conflict. As well, terrorism is associated with a redirection of economic activity away from investment spending and towards government spending. However, our investigation also suggests important differences both regarding the incidence and the economic consequences of terrorism among different sets of countries. In OECD economies, in particular, terrorist incidents are considerably more frequent than in other nations, but the negative influence of these incidents on growth is smaller.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 1151.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1151

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Related research
Keywords: growth; conflict; terrorism;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General
H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Gregory D. Hess & Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "War and Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(4), pages 776-810, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. David de la Croix & Matthias Doepke, 2001. "Inequality and Growth: Why Differential Fertility Matters," UCLA Economics Working Papers 803, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Alan B. Krueger & Jitka Maleckova, 2002. "Education, Poverty, Political Violence and Terrorism: Is There a Causal Connection?," NBER Working Papers 9074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
    Other versions:
  7. Jeffrey A. Frankel & David Romer, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Lapan, Harvey E. & Sandler, Todd, 2003. "Terrorism and Signalling," Staff General Research Papers 10808, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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  9. Hess, Gregory D & Orphanides, Athanasios, 1995. "War Politics: An Economic, Rational-Voter Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(4), pages 828-46, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd & Parise, Gerald F, 1992. "An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism on Tourism," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 531-54.
  14. Blomberg, S. Brock & Hess, Gregory D. & Weerapana, Akila, 2004. "Economic conditions and terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 463-478, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Hess, Gregory D. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2001. "Economic conditions, elections, and the magnitude of foreign conflicts," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 121-140, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Michelle R. Garfinkel, 2003. "Global Threats and the Domestic Struggle for Power," Public Economics 0306001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Deininger, Klaus & Squire, Lyn, 1996. "A New Data Set Measuring Income Inequality," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 565-91, September.
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Martin Gassebner & Richard Jong-A-Pin & Jochen O. Mierau, 2007. "Terrorism and Cabinet Duration: An Empirical Analysis," Working papers 07-181, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  2. Nicole Crain & W. Crain, 2006. "Terrorized economies," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 317-349, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kent Smetters, 2005. "Insuring Against Terrorism: The Policy Challenge," NBER Working Papers 11038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mirza, Daniel & Verdier, Thierry, 2006. "International trade, security, and transnational terrorism : theory and empirics," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4093, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Konstantinos Drakos, 2009. "Security Economics: A Guide for Data Availability and Needs," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 6, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  6. Denis Larocque & Geneviève Lincourt & Michel Normandin, 2008. "Macroeconomic Effects of Terrorist Shocks in Israel," Cahiers de recherche 0820, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
  7. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory Hess, 2004. "How Much Does Violence Tax Trade?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Hamid Mohtadi & Antu Panini Murshid, 2009. "Risk of catastrophic terrorism: an extreme value approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 537-559. [Downloadable!]
  9. Michele Fratianni & Heejoon Kang, 2006. "International Terrorism, International Trade, and Borders," Working Papers 2006-13, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy. [Downloadable!]
  10. Luca Pieroni & Giorgio d'Agostino & Marco Lorusso, 2008. "Can We Declare Military Keynesianism Dead?," Discussion Papers 0804, University of the West of England, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Henk C. Kranendonk & Jan Bonenkamp & Johan P. Verbruggen, 2004. "A Leading Indicator for the Dutch Economy – Methodological and Empirical Revision of the CPB System," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  12. Khusrav Gaibulloev, 2008. "The Impact of Terrorism and Conflicts on Growth in Asia, 1970–2004," Working Papers id:1789, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-3.


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