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Museum and monument attendance and tourism flow: a time series analysis approach

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  • Roberto Cellini
  • Tiziana Cuccia

Abstract

This article takes a time-series analysis approach to evaluate the directions of causality between tourism flows, on the one side, and museum and monument attendance, on the other. We consider Italy as a case study, and analyse monthly data over the period January 1996 to December 2010. All the considered series are seasonally integrated, and co-integration links emerge. We focus on the error-correction mechanism among co-integrated time series to detect the directional link(s) of causality. Clear-cut results emerge: bi-directional causality exists in the long-run dynamics, but it is the long-run dynamics of visits to museums and monuments that mainly adjust to tourism variables (arrivals, overnights, average stays). In the short run, there are some causal effects going from the cultural sites’ attendance to tourism dynamics. The nonstationary nature of time series, their co-integration relationships and the direction of causal links suggest specific implications for tourism and cultural policies.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2012.716150
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 45 (2013)
Issue (Month): 24 (August)
Pages: 3473-3482

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:45:y:2013:i:24:p:3473-3482

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. F. Di Lascio & Simone Giannerini & Antonello Scorcu & Guido Candela, 2011. "Cultural tourism and temporary art exhibitions in Italy: a panel data analysis," Statistical Methods and Applications, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 519-542, November.
  2. R. Patuelli & M. Mussoni & G. Candela, 2012. "The Effects of World Heritage Sites on Domestic Tourism: A Spatial Interaction Model for Italy," Working Papers wp834, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  3. JG. Brida & M. Pulina & E. Riaño, 2010. "Visitors’ experience in a modern art museum: a structural equation model," Working Paper CRENoS 201026, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.

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