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Temporary Cycles or Volatile Trends? Economic Fluctuations in 21 OECD Economies

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  • Sterne, Gabriel
  • Bayoumi, Tamim

Abstract

Structural vector autoregressions are used to distinguish between transitory (AD) disturbances to output and permanent (AS) disturbances. The results indicate that the two disturbances are of roughly equal importance in explaining fluctuations in growth and inflation across a wide range of OECD countries. A method of distinguishing the effects of each type of disturbance on output and prices is then outlined. This makes it possible to measure 'supply potential' for each economy. The authors find evidence of a steady decline in the rate of increase of supply potential over time, a view consistent with the 'catch up' theory of postwar economic growth. Copyright 1995 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Manchester in its journal The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies.

Volume (Year): 63 (1995)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 23-51

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Handle: RePEc:bla:manch2:v:63:y:1995:i:1:p:23-51

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Cited by:
  1. ODIA NDONGO, Yves Francis, 2007. "Les sources des fluctuations marcoéconomiques au Cameroun," MPRA Paper 1308, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Jörg Döpke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2000. "Stock Market Dispersion, Sectoral Shocks, and the German Business Cycle," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 136(IV), pages 531-555, December.
  3. Charles St-Arnaud, 2004. "Une approche éclectique d'estimation du PIB potentiel pour le Royaume-Uni," Working Papers 04-46, Bank of Canada.
  4. Louis, Rosmy & Osman, Mohammad & Balli, FAruk, 2007. "On The Road to Monetary Union – Do Arab Gulf Cooperation Council Economies React in the same way to United States' Monetary Policy Shocks?," MPRA Paper 11610, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2008.
  5. Funke, Michael, 1997. "Supply potential and output gaps in West German manufacturing," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 211-222, June.
  6. Ewa Wrobel & Malgorzata Pawlowska, 2002. "Monetary transmission in Poland: some evidence on interest rate and credit channels," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 24, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  7. Jörg Döpke, 2000. "Macroeconomic Forecasts and the Nature of Economic Shocks in Germany," Kiel Working Papers 972, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  8. Jan Gottschalk & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2003. "Do Bivariate SVAR Models with Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Yield Reliable Results? An Investigation into the Case of Germany," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(I), pages 55-81, March.
  9. Dopke, Jorg, 2001. "Macroeconomic forecasts and the nature of economic shocks in Germany," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 181-201.
  10. jose ramos pires manso, 2004. "Economical Versus Political Cycles In An Iberian Manufacturing Sector," Industrial Organization 0404003, EconWPA.
  11. Alejandro D. Jacobo, 2002. "Taking the business cycle´s pulse to some Latin American economies: Is there a rhythmical beat?," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 17(2), pages 219-245.
  12. Mark S Astley & Tony Yates, 1999. "Inflation and real disequilibria," Bank of England working papers 103, Bank of England.
  13. Jan Gottschalk & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2001. "Do Bivariate SVAR Models with Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Yield Reliable Results? The Case of Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1068, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

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