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Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies

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  • Schanne, Norbert

    ()
    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

  • Wapler, Rüdiger

    ()
    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

  • Weyh, Antje

    ()
    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

Abstract

"We forecast unemployment for the 176 German labour-market districts on a monthly basis. Because of their small size, strong spatial interdependencies exist between these regional units. To account for these as well as for the heterogeneity in the regional development over time, we apply different versions of an univariate spatial GVAR model. When comparing the forecast precision with univariate time-series methods, we find that the spatial model does indeed perform better or at least as well. Hence, the GVAR model provides an alternative or complementary approach to commonly used methods in regional forecasting which do not consider regional interdependencies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany] in its series IAB Discussion Paper with number 200828.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 10 Jul 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 26, No. 4 (2010), p. 908-926
Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:200828

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Keywords: Arbeitslosigkeit; regionale Verteilung; Arbeitsmarktprognose; regionale Disparität; Prognoseverfahren; Regionalökonomie; regionaler Arbeitsmarkt; Arbeitsagenturbezirke; Prognosegenauigkeit; Prognosemodell;

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