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Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies

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Author Info
Schanne, Norbert () (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])
Wapler, Rüdiger () (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])
Weyh, Antje () (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

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Abstract

"We forecast unemployment for the 176 German labour-market districts on a monthly basis. Because of their small size, strong spatial interdependencies exist between these regional units. To account for these as well as for the heterogeneity in the regional development over time, we apply different versions of an univariate spatial GVAR model. When comparing the forecast precision with univariate time-series methods, we find that the spatial model does indeed perform better or at least as well. Hence, the GVAR model provides an alternative or complementary approach to commonly used methods in regional forecasting which do not consider regional interdependencies." (author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany] in its series IAB Discussion Paper with number 200828.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 10 Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:200828

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Keywords: Arbeitslosigkeit; regionale Verteilung; Arbeitsmarktprognose; regionale Disparität; Prognoseverfahren; Regionalökonomie; regionaler Arbeitsmarkt; Arbeitsagenturbezirke; Prognosegenauigkeit; Prognosemodell;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
O18 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Regional, Urban, and Rural Analyses

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
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  7. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2006. "Forecasting with VARMA Models," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Edlund, Per-Olov & Karlsson, Sune, 1993. "Forecasting the Swedish unemployment rate VAR vs. transfer function modelling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 61-76, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Amend, Elke & Herbst, Patrick, 2008. "Labor market pooling and human capital investment decisions," IAB Discussion Paper 200804, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]. [Downloadable!]
  2. Eckey, Hans-Friedrich & Schwengler, Barbara & Türck, Matthias, 2007. "Vergleich von deutschen Arbeitsmarktregionen," IAB Discussion Paper 200703, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hohendanner, Christian, 2007. "Verdrängen Ein-Euro-Jobs sozialversicherungspflichtige Beschäftigung in den Betrieben?," IAB Discussion Paper 200708, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]. [Downloadable!]
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