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Finite sample effects of pure seasonal mean shifts on Dickey-Fuller tests

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Author Info
B. da Silva Lopes, Artur C.

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Abstract

In this paper it is demonstrated by simulation that, contrary to a widely held belief, pure seasonal mean shifts - i.e., seasonal structural breaks which affect only the deterministic seasonal cycle - really do matter for Dickey-Fuller long-run unit root tests.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/125/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 125.

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Date of creation: 15 Oct 2005
Date of revision: May 2006
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:125

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Related research
Keywords: unit roots; seasonality; Dickey-Fuller tests; structural breaks;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Philip Hans Franses & Timothy J. Vogelsang, 1998. "On Seasonal Cycles, Unit Roots, And Mean Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 231-240, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Pierre Perron & Gabriel RodrÌguez, 2003. "Searching For Additive Outliers In Nonstationary Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(2), pages 193-220, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Leybourne, Stephen J. & C. Mills, Terence & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Spurious rejections by Dickey-Fuller tests in the presence of a break under the null," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 191-203, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Antonio Montanes & Andreu Sanso, 2001. "The Dickey-Fuller Test Family and Changes in the Seasonal Pattern," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 61, pages 06, Janvier-M. [Downloadable!]
  5. Artur C. B. da Silva Lopes & Antonio Montañés, 2004. "The Behavior of HEGY Tests for Quarterly Time Series with Seasonal Mean Shifts," Econometrics 0411010, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. da Silva Lopes, Artur C. B., 2001. "The robustness of tests for seasonal differencing to structural breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 173-179, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Newbold, Paul, 2002. "Seasonal unit root tests with seasonal mean shifts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 295-302, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Schwert, G William, 1989. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 147-59, April.
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  9. Uwe Hassler & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2004. "Seasonal Unit Root Tests Under Structural Breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(1), pages 33-53, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Perron, P., 1987. "The Great Crash, the Oil Prices and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cahiers de recherche 8749, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  11. Balcombe, Kelvin, 1999. " Seasonal Unit Root Tests with Structural Breaks in Deterministic Seasonality," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(4), pages 569-82, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Effects of Additive Outliers on Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 471-78, October.
    Other versions:
  13. Artur C. B. da Silva Lopes, 2004. "Deterministic Seasonality in Dickey-Fuller Tests: Should We Care?," Econometrics 0402007, EconWPA, revised 18 Mar 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Nelson, Charles R & Piger, Jeremy & Zivot, Eric, 2001. "Markov Regime Switching and Unit-Root Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 404-15, October.
    Other versions:
  15. Smith, Jeremy & Otero, Jesus, 1997. "Structural breaks and seasonal integration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 13-19, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Stephen J. Leybourne And Paul Newbold, 2000. "Behaviour of the standard and symmetric Dickey-Fuller-type tests when there is a break under the null hypothesis," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15.
  17. Taylor, A M Robert, 2000. " The Finite Sample Effects of Deterministic Variables on Conventional Methods of Lag-Selection in Unit Root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(2), pages 293-304, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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