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A seasonal analysis of Asian tourist arrivals to Australia

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  • Christine Lim
  • Michael McAleer

Abstract

Rapid economic growth in South-East and East Asia has seen a surge in tourist arrivals from this region to Australia in the 1990s, prior to the currency crisis in late 1997. The purpose of the paper is to use Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models to explain the nonstationary seasonally unadjusted quarterly tourist arrivals from Hong Kong and Singapore to Australia from 1975(1) to 1996(4). As the tourist arrivals series display strong seasonal patterns, deterministic and stochastic seasonality are examined as possible explanations for variations in the international tourist arrivals series. The Hylleberg et al. (Journal of Econometrics, 99, pp. 215-38, 1990) test for seasonal unit roots is used to examine stochastic seasonality in the various series.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 32 (2000)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 499-509

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:32:y:2000:i:4:p:499-509

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Prasert Chaitip & N. Rangaswamy, 2008. "A Panel Unit Root and Panel Cointegration Test of the Modeling International Tourism Demand in India," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 8(1), pages 95-124.
  2. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2003. "Modelling International Travel Demand from Singapore to Australia," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-214, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  3. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Modelling the Determinants of International Tourism Demand to Australia," ISER Discussion Paper 0532, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  4. Chukiat CHAIBOONSRI & Prasert CHAITIP, 2012. "Trends and Perspectives Regarding the Evolution of the Concept of Economic Intelligence within the Context of the Economic Crisis," Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and Information Technology, ScientificPapers.org, vol. 2(2), pages 7, April.
  5. Artur Da Silva Lopes, 2004. "Deterministic Seasonality In Dickey-Fuller Tests: Should We Care?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 75, Royal Economic Society.
  6. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:577-586 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Jittaporn Sriboonjit & Thanes Sriwichailamphan & Prasert Chaitip & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2010. "A Panel Cointegration Analysis: An Application To International Tourism Demand Of Thailand," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 10(3), pages 69-86.
  8. Chia-Ling Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Michael McAleer & Roengchai Tansuchat, 2009. "Interdependence of International Tourism Demand and Volatility in Leading ASEAN Destinations," CARF F-Series CARF-F-190, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  9. Amitrajeet A Batabyal & Hamid Beladi, 2010. "A stochastic model of the provision of guided tours to tourists," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 577-586.
  10. Brida, Juan Gabriel & Pereyra, Juan Sebastián & Such, María Jesús & Pulina, Manuela, 2011. "Causalidad entre turismo y crecimiento económico de largo plazo: una revisión crítica de la literatura econométrica
    [Causality between tourism and long-term economic growth: a critical review o
    ," MPRA Paper 37332, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
  11. Evren Erdoğan Cosar, 2006. "Seasonal behaviour of the consumer price index of Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 449-455.
  12. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Time Series Forecasts of International Tourism Demand for Australia," ISER Discussion Paper 0533, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  13. Cellini, Roberto & Cuccia, Tiziana, 2009. "Museum and monument attendance and tourism flow: A time series analysis approach," MPRA Paper 18908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Prasert Chaitip & N. Rangaswamy, 2009. "Modelling International Tourism Demand in Thailand," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 9(3), pages 125-146.
  15. Hari Sharma Neupane & Chandra Lal Shrestha & Tara Prasad Upadhyaya, 2012. "Modelling Monthly International Tourist Arrivals and Its Risk in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 24(1), pages 28-47, April.
  16. Komkrit Wongkhae & Songsak Sriboonchitta & Kanchana Choketaworn & Chukiat Chaiboonsri, 2012. "Does price matter? The FMOLS and DOLS estimation of industrial countries tourists outbound to four ASEAN countries," The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, vol. 1(4), pages 107-128, December.
  17. Habibi, Fateh & Abdul Rahim, Khalid & Chin, Lee, 2008. "United Kingdom and United States Tourism Demand for Malaysia:A Cointegration Analysis," MPRA Paper 13590, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  18. Wang, Tai-Yue & Huang, Chien-Yu, 2007. "Improving forecasting performance by employing the Taguchi method," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 176(2), pages 1052-1065, January.

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