Money and prices in the Polish economy. Seasonal cointegration approach
AbstractThe paper presents the analysis of the long run causality behaviour between money and prices in the Polish economy during the transition period. The study makes use of the monetary inflation model known as the P-star model, originally developed by the FED economists at the end of 80-ties. The research on the relationship between money and prices in the Polish economy carried out to date indicates that some variables (GDP, prices) show the irregular seasonal pattern. For this reason we propose to analyse the long run relationship between money and prices in the Polish economy by means of seasonal cointegration, developed by Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and You in the beginning of 90-ties. The main hypothesis has been verified positively. The results of the research give the evidence that there exists a long-run causality relationship between money and prices (long-run cointegration relationship), which follows the assumptions of the P-star inflation model. The results also indicate that there are no seasonal cointegrating relationships in the P-star inflation model, which can be interpreted as the money demand equations. This means that the quality of the inflation forecasts cannot be improved by applying the additional seasonal cointegrating relationships to this model.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 20.
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 22 May 2005
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 02-513 Warszawa, ul. Madalinskiego 6/8
Phone: + (48)(22) 49 12 51
Fax: + (48)(22) 49 53 12
Web page: http://www.sgh.waw.pl/instytuty/zes
More information through EDIRC
money; inflation; P-star; money demand; real money gap; seasonality; seasonal cointegration;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cubadda, Gianluca & Omtzigt, Pieter, 2003.
"Small Sample Improvements in the Statistical Analysis of Seasonally Cointegrated Systems,"
Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers
esdp03012, University of Molise, Dept. SEGeS.
- Cubadda, Gianluca & Omtzigt, Pieter, 2005. "Small-sample improvements in the statistical analysis of seasonally cointegrated systems," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 333-348, April.
- Franses, Philip Hans & Kunst, Robert M, 1999.
" On the Role of Seasonal Intercepts in Seasonal Cointegration,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(3), pages 409-33, August.
- Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Kunst, R.M., 1998. "On the role of seasonal intercepts in seasonal cointegration," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9820, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Franses, Philip Hans & Kunst, Robert M., 1995. "On the role of seasonal intercepts in seasonal cointegration," Economics Series 15, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Barassi, Marco R. & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hall, Stephen G., 2005. "Interest rate linkages: a Kalman filter approach to detecting structural change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 253-284, March.
- Greenslade, Jennifer V. & Hall, Stephen G. & Henry, S. G. Brian, 2002. "On the identification of cointegrated systems in small samples: a modelling strategy with an application to UK wages and prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1517-1537, August.
- Arratibel, Olga & Kamps, Christophe & Leiner-Killinger, Nadine, 2009. "Inflation forecasting in the new EU Member States," Working Paper Series 1015, European Central Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marcin Owczarczuk).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.