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The forecasting performance of various models for seasonality and nonlinearity for quarterly industrial production Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Franses, Philip Hans
van Dijk, Dick
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting .
Volume (Year): 21 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 87-102
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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:21:y:2005:i:1:p:87-102Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Philip Hans Franses & Timothy J. Vogelsang, 1998.
"On Seasonal Cycles, Unit Roots, And Mean Shifts ,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics ,
MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 231-240, May.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1999.
"A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical SETAR Models ,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics ,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 123-41, March-Apr.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Paap, Richard & Franses, Philip Hans & Hoek, Henk, 1997.
"Mean shifts, unit roots and forecasting seasonal time series ,"
International Journal of Forecasting ,
Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 357-368, September.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Richard Paap & Philip Hans Franses, 1999.
"On trends and constants in periodic autoregressions ,"
Econometric Reviews ,
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 271-286.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Ph.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap, 1999.
"Forecasting with periodic autoregressive time series models ,"
Econometric Institute Report
156, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Paap, R., 1999.
"Forecasting with periodic autoregressive time series models ,"
Econometric Institute Report
EI 9927-/A Revision_Date:, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
[Downloadable!] Franses, P.H. & Paap, R., 1999.
"Forecasting with Period Autoregressive Time Series Models ,"
Papers
9927/a, Erasmus University of Rotterdam - Econometric Institute.
Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2003.
"Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 104-21, January.
Other versions: Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990.
"Seasonal integration and cointegration ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Hyllerberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988.
"Seasonal Integration And Cointegration ,"
Papers
0-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988.
"Seasonal, Integration And Cointegration ,"
Papers
6-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
Canova, Fabio & Ghysels, Eric, 1994.
"Changes in seasonal patterns : Are they cyclical? ,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control ,
Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1143-1171, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Canova, F. & Ghysels, E., 1992.
"Changes in Seasonal Patters: Are They Cyclical ,"
Cahiers de recherche
9216, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
[Downloadable!] Canova, F. & Ghysels, E., 1992.
"Changes in Seasonal Patters: Are They Cyclical ,"
Cahiers de recherche
9216, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
Franses, Philip Hans & Hoek, Henk & Paap, Richard, 1997.
"Bayesian analysis of seasonal unit roots and seasonal mean shifts ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 359-380, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Franses, Philip Hans & Hoek, Henk & Paap, Richard, 1995.
"Baysian analysis of seasonal unit roots and seasonal mean shifts ,"
Econometric Institute Report
57, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
[Downloadable!] Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Hoek, H. & Paap, R., 1995.
"Bayesian Analysis of Seasonal Unit Roots and Seasonal Mean Shifts ,"
Econometric Institute Report
EI 9527-/A Revision_Date:, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
[Downloadable!] Franses, P.H. & Hoek, H. & Paap, R., 1995.
"Baysian Analysis of Seasonal , Unit Roots and Seasonal Mean Shifts ,"
Papers
9527/a, Erasmus University of Rotterdam - Econometric Institute.
Hylleberg, Svend & Jorgensen, Clara & Sorensen, Nils Karl, 1993.
"Seasonality in Macroeconomic Time Series ,"
Empirical Economics ,
Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 321-35.
Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992.
"Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models ,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics ,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Canova, Fabio & Hansen, Bruce E, 1995.
"Are Seasonal Patterns Constant over Time? A Test for Seasonal Stability ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 237-52, July.
Osborn, Denise R & Smith, Jeremy P, 1989.
"The Performance of Periodic Autoregressive Models in Forecasting Seasonal U. K. Consumption ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 7(1), pages 117-27, January.
Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1997.
"An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting ,"
International Journal of Forecasting ,
Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-355, September.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998.
"Tests for Forecast Encompassing ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-59, April.
Smith, Jeremy & Otero, Jesus, 1997.
"Structural breaks and seasonal integration ,"
Economics Letters ,
Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 13-19, September.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Ghysels, E., 1990.
"On the Economic and Econometrics of Seasonality ,"
Cahiers de recherche
9028, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
Other versions: Skalin, Joakim & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1998.
"Modelling asymmetries and moving equilibria in unemployment rates ,"
Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
262, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 05 Oct 1998.
Lof, Marten & Hans Franses, Philip, 2001.
"On forecasting cointegrated seasonal time series ,"
International Journal of Forecasting ,
Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 607-621.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Osborn, Denise R, 1988.
"Seasonality and Habit Persistence in a Life Cycle Model of Consumptio n ,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics ,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 255-66, October-D.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
Other versions:
Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy ,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
Potter, Simon M, 1995.
"A Nonlinear Approach to US GNP ,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics ,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 109-25, April-Jun.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Löf, Mårten & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000.
"On Forecasting Cointegrated Seasonal Time Series ,"
Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
350, Stockholm School of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
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references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Giancarlo Bruno, 2009.
"Non-linear relation between industrial production and business surveys data ,"
ISAE Working Papers
119, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY).
[Downloadable!]
John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007.
"How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables ,"
Working Papers
07-1, Bank of Canada.
[Downloadable!]
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