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On trends and constants in periodic autoregressions

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Author Info
Richard Paap
Philip Hans Franses

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Abstract

Periodic autoregressions are characterised by autoregressive structures that vary with the season. If a time series is periodically integrated, one needs a seasonally varying differencing filter to remove the stochastic trend. When the periodic regression model contains constants and trends with unrestricted parameters, the data can show diverging seasonal deterministic trends. In this paper we derive explicit expressions for parameter restrictions that result in common deterministic trends under periodic trend stationarity and periodic integration.

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File URL: http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&doi=10.1080/07474939908800446&magic=repec&7C&7C8674ECAB8BB840C6AD35DC6213A474B5
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Econometric Reviews.

Volume (Year): 18 (1999)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 271-286
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Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:18:y:1999:i:3:p:271-286

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  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Richard M. Todd, 2000. "The Conventional Treatment of Seasonality in Business Cycle Analysis: Does it Create Distortions?," NBER Technical Working Papers 0266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ph.H.B.F. Franses & R. Paap, 1999. "Forecasting with periodic autoregressive time series models," Econometric Institute Report 156, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. P.H. Franses & D. Van Dijk, 2001. "The Forecasting Performance of Various Models for Seasonality and Nonlinearity for Quarterly Industrial Production," Econometric Institute Report 222, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Pami Dua & Lokendra Kumawat, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Seasonality in Indian Macroeconomic Time Series," Working papers 136, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Eiji Kurozumi, 2002. "Testing For Periodic Stationarity," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 243-270. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Tomas del Barrio Castro & Denise R Osborn, 2005. "Cointegration for Periodically Integrated Processes," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0522, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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