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The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctiations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series

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  • van Dijk, D.J.C.
  • Strikholm, B.
  • Terasvirta, T.

Abstract

Changes in the seasonal patterns of macroeconomic time series may be due to the effects of business cycle fluctuations or to technological and institutional change or both. We examine the relative importance of these two sources of change in seasonality for industrial production series of the G7 countries. We find compelling evidence that the effects of gradual institutional and technological change are much more important than the effects attributable to the business cycle.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Research Papers with number EI 2001-12.

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Date of creation: 30 Mar 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:1676

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Keywords: Nonlinear time series; Seasonality; Smooth transition autoregression; structural change; time-varying parameter;

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