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Modelling asymmetries and moving equilibria in unemployment rates

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Author Info
Skalin, Joakim () (Ministry of Finance, Department of Economics)
Teräsvirta, Timo () (Dept. of Economic Statistics, Stockholm School of Economics)

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Abstract

The paper discusses a simple univariate nonlinear parametric time-series model for unemployment rates, focusing on the asymmetry observed in many OECD unemployment rate series. The model is based on a standard logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model for the first difference of unemployment, but it also includes a lagged level term. This model allows for asymmetric behaviour by permitting 'local' nonstationarity in a globally stable model. Linearity tests are performed for a number of quarterly, seasonally unadjusted, unemployment series from OECD countries, and linearity is rejected for a number of them. For a number of series, nonlinearity found by testing can be modelled satisfactorily by use of our smooth transition autoregressive model. The properties of the estimated models, including persistence of the shocks according to them, are illustrated in various ways and discussed. Possible existence of moving equilibria in series not showing asymmetry is investigated and modelled with another STAR model.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Stockholm School of Economics in its series Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance with number 262.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: 28 Sep 1998
Date of revision: 05 Oct 1998
Publication status: Published in Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2002, pages 202-241.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0262

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Related research
Keywords: Persistence; nonlinearity; smooth transition regression; time series model; linearity test;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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  1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Non-Linearities And Fractional Integration In The Us Unemployment Rate," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 05-17, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2006. "Modelling Structural Breaks In The Us, Uk And Japanese Unemployment Rates," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 06-10, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Alessandra Amendola, 2001. "Modelling Asymmetries in Unemployment Rate," CELPE Discussion Papers 60, CELPE (Centre of Labour Economics and Economic Policy), University of Salerno, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  4. George Woodward & Heather Anderson, 2003. "Does Beta React to Market Conditions? Estimates of Bull and Bear Betas using a Nonlinear Market Model with an Endogenous Threshold Parameter," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 9/03, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  5. P.H. Franses & D. Van Dijk, 2001. "The Forecasting Performance of Various Models for Seasonality and Nonlinearity for Quarterly Industrial Production," Econometric Institute Report 222, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  6. José Cancelo, 2007. "Cyclical Asymmetries in Unemployment Rates: International Evidence," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 334-346, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Emanuela Marrocu, 2006. "An Investigation of the Effects of Data Transformation on Nonlinearity," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 801-820, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2008. "Modelling Long-Run Trends and Cycles in Financial Time Series Data," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  9. Matthews, Kent & Minford, Patrick & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2006. "Vicious and Virtuous Circles - The Political Economy of Unemployment in Interwar UK and USA," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2006/7, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
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  10. Akram,Q.F. & Nymoen,R., 2001. "Employment behaviour in slack and tight labour markets," Memorandum 27/2001, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ruthira Naraidoo & Patrick Minford & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2006. "The political economy of unemployment and threshold effects. A nonlinear time series approach," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2006/21, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University. [Downloadable!]
  12. Eric V. Clifton & H. L. Leon & Chorng-Huey Wong, 2001. "Inflation Targeting and the Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off," IMF Working Papers 01/166, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Sei-Wan Kim & Radha Bhattacharya, 2009. "Regional Housing Prices in the USA: An Empirical Investigation of Nonlinearity," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 443-460, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2005. "The Bi-parameter Smooth Transition Autoregressive model," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(23), pages 1-11. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Gilles Dufrenot & Valerie Mignon, 2004. "Modeling the French Consumption Function Using SETAR Models," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(20), pages 1-16. [Downloadable!]
  16. Marcelle Chauvet & Chinhui Juhn & Simon Potter, 2001. "Markov switching in disaggregate unemployment rates," Staff Reports 132, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  17. D. van Dijk & T. Terasvirta & P.H. Franses, 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Report 200, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Funke, Michael & Gronwald, Marc, 2007. "The Undisclosed Renminbi Basket: Are The Markets Telling Us Something About Where The Renminbi - US Dollar Exchange Rate Is Going?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Paul De Bruin, Philip Hans Franses, 1999. "Forecasting power-transformed time series data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 26(7), pages 807-815, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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