Modelling asymmetries and moving equilibria in unemployment rates
AbstractThe paper discusses a simple univariate nonlinear parametric time-series model for unemployment rates, focusing on the asymmetry observed in many OECD unemployment rate series. The model is based on a standard logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model for the first difference of unemployment, but it also includes a lagged level term. This model allows for asymmetric behaviour by permitting 'local' nonstationarity in a globally stable model. Linearity tests are performed for a number of quarterly, seasonally unadjusted, unemployment series from OECD countries, and linearity is rejected for a number of them. For a number of series, nonlinearity found by testing can be modelled satisfactorily by use of our smooth transition autoregressive model. The properties of the estimated models, including persistence of the shocks according to them, are illustrated in various ways and discussed. Possible existence of moving equilibria in series not showing asymmetry is investigated and modelled with another STAR model.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Stockholm School of Economics in its series Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance with number 262.
Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: 28 Sep 1998
Date of revision: 05 Oct 1998
Publication status: Published in Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2002, pages 202-241.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: The Economic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics, P.O. Box 6501, 113 83 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: +46-(0)8-736 90 00
Fax: +46-(0)8-31 01 57
Web page: http://www.hhs.se/
More information through EDIRC
Persistence; nonlinearity; smooth transition regression; time series model; linearity test;
Other versions of this item:
- Skalin, Joakim & Ter svirta, Timo, 2002. "Modeling Asymmetries And Moving Equilibria In Unemployment Rates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(02), pages 202-241, April.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-1998-10-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-1998-10-19 (Econometrics)
- NEP-LTV-1998-10-15 (Unemployment, Inequality & Poverty)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Daniel S. Hamermesh & Gerard A. Pfann, 1996.
"Adjustment Costs in Factor Demand,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 1264-1292, September.
- Franses, Philip Hans, 1996. "Periodicity and Stochastic Trends in Economic Time Series," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774549.
- Skalin, Joakim & Terasvirta, Timo, 1999.
"Another Look at Swedish Business Cycles, 1861-1988,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 359-78, July-Aug..
- J. Skalin & T. Teräsvirta, 1996. "Another Look at Swedish Business Cycles, 1861-1988," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1996,96, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Skalin, Joakim & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1996. "Another Look at Swedish Business Cycles, 1861-1988," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 130, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Skalin and Terasvirta(1999) STAR models and causality tests," Statistical Software Components RTZ00191, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986.
"Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem,"
427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004.
"Dynamic asymmetries in US unemployment,"
ESE Discussion Papers
15, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Roed, Knut, 1997. " Hysteresis in Unemployment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 389-418, December.
- Jansen, Eilev S & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996.
"Testing Parameter Constancy and Super Exogeneity in Econometric Equations,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 735-63, November.
- Jansen, Eilev S. & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995. "Testing Parameter Constancy and super Exogeneity in Econometric Equations," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 53, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1989.
"Hysteresis in Unemployment,"
NBER Working Papers
2035, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1994.
"The Cleansing Effect of Recessions,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1350-68, December.
- Caballero, R.J. & Hammour, M.L., 1991. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," Discussion Papers 1991_59, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
- Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 1991. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," NBER Working Papers 3922, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kurt Brännäs & Henry Ohlsson, 1999.
"Asymmetric Time Series and Temporal Aggregation,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 341-344, May.
- Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
- Enders, Walter & Granger, C. W. J., 1998.
"Unit Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
Staff General Research Papers
1388, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-11, July.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Enders/Granger JBES(1998)on threshold unit roots," Statistical Software Components RTZ00054, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Asymmetries in the Cyclical Behaviour of UK Labour Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1303-23, November.
- Bianchi, Marco & Zoega, Gylfi, 1995.
"Unemployment Persistence : Does the Size of the Shock Matter ?,"
Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales)
1995014, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- Marco Bianchi & Gylfi Zoega, 1998. "Unemployment persistence: does the size of the shock matter?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 283-304.
- Marco Bianchi & Gylfi Zoega, 1996. "Unemployment persistence: Does the size of the shock matter?," Bank of England working papers 50, Bank of England.
- Zoega, Gylfi, 1994. "Unemployment Persistence: Does the Size of the Shock Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ours, J. C. van & Pfann, G. & Ridder, G., 1993. "Labour Demand and Equilibrium Wage Formation," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-153299, Tilburg University.
- D. A. Peel & A. E. H. Speight, 1998. "The nonlinear time series properties of unemployment rates: some further evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 287-294, February.
- Diamond, Peter A, 1982.
"Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 881-94, October.
- Bentolila, Samuel & Bertola, Giuseppe, 1990. "Firing Costs and Labour Demand: How Bad Is Eurosclerosis?," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 381-402, July.
- Rothman, Philip, 1988.
"Further Evidence On The Asymmetric Behavior Of Unemployment Rates Over The Business Cycle,"
88-23, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Rothman, Philip, 1991. "Further evidence on the asymmetric behavior of unemployment rates over the business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 291-298.
- Burgess, S M, 1992.
"Nonlinear Dynamics in a Structural Model of Employment,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S101-18, Suppl. De.
- Simon Burgess, 1991. "Nonlinear Dynamics in a Structural Model of Employment," CEP Discussion Papers dp0037, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989.
"The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Philip Rothman, .
"Forecasting Asymmetric Unemployment Rates,"
9618, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
- Sichel, Daniel E, 1989. "Are Business Cycles Asymmetric? A Correction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1255-60, October.
- Burgess, Simon M, 1992. "Asymmetric Employment Cycles in Britain: Evidence and an Explanation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 279-90, March.
- Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996.
"Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
- Eitrheim, Øyvind & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995. "Testing the Adequacy of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 56, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Helena Lundin).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.