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The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctuations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series

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  • Dick van Dijk 1
  • Birgit Strikholm
  • Timo Ter�svirta

Abstract

Changes in the seasonal patterns of macroeconomic time series may be due to the effects of business cycle fluctuations or to technological and institutional change or both. We examine the relative importance of these two sources of change in seasonality for quarterly industrial production series of the G7 countries using time-varying smooth transition autoregressive models. We find compelling evidence that the effects of gradual institutional and technological change are much more important than the effects attributable to the business cycle. Copyright Royal Economic Society, 2003

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Econometrics Journal.

Volume (Year): 6 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 (06)
Pages: 79-98

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Handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:6:y:2003:i:1:p:79-98

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  1. Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2003. "Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 104-21, January.
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  14. S. Krane & W. Wascher, 1999. "The cyclical sensitivity of seasonality in US employment," BIS Working Papers 67, Bank for International Settlements.
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