This file is part of IDEAS , which uses RePEc data
[ Papers |
Articles |
Software |
Books |
Chapters |
Authors |
Institutions |
JEL Classification |
NEP reports |
Search |
New papers by email |
Author registration |
Rankings |
Volunteers |
FAQ |
Blog |
Help! ]
The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctuations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Dick van Dijk 1
Birgit Strikholm
Timo Teräsvirta
Additional information is available for the following
registered author(s):
Changes in the seasonal patterns of macroeconomic time series may be due to the effects of business cycle fluctuations or to technological and institutional change or both. We examine the relative importance of these two sources of change in seasonality for quarterly industrial production series of the G7 countries using time-varying smooth transition autoregressive models. We find compelling evidence that the effects of gradual institutional and technological change are much more important than the effects attributable to the business cycle. Copyright Royal Economic Society, 2003
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
file . Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Econometrics Journal .
Volume (Year): 6 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 (06)
Pages: 79-98
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML ,
plain text ,
BibTeX ,
RIS (EndNote),
ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:6:y:2003:i:1:p:79-98Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.res.org.uk/ More information through EDIRC
Order Information: Web: http://www.ectj.org
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
Keywords: Other versions of this item:
Paper van Dijk, Dick & Strikholm, Birgit & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2001.
"The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctuations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series ,"
Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
0429, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 16 May 2002.
[Downloadable!] D. Van Dijk & D. Strikholm & T. Terasvirta, 2001.
"The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctiations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series ,"
Econometric Institute Report
220, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
[Downloadable!] References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Philip Hans Franses & Timothy J. Vogelsang, 1998.
"On Seasonal Cycles, Unit Roots, And Mean Shifts ,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics ,
MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 231-240, May.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
S. Krane & W. Wascher, 1999.
"The cyclical sensitivity of seasonality in US employment ,"
BIS Working Papers
67, Bank for International Settlements.
[Downloadable!]
Sichel, Daniel E, 1994.
"Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 269-77, July.
Beaulieu, J Joseph & MacKie-Mason, Jeffrey K & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1992.
"Why Do Countries and Industries with Large Seasonal Cycles also Have Large Business Cycles? ,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics ,
MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 621-56, May.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: David A. Pierce, 1978.
"Seasonal adjustment when both deterministic and stochastic seasonality are present ,"
Special Studies Papers
107, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Hansen, Bruce E, 1996.
"Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994.
"Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag ,"
Cahiers de recherche
9423, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
Other versions: Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990.
"Seasonal integration and cointegration ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Hyllerberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988.
"Seasonal Integration And Cointegration ,"
Papers
0-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988.
"Seasonal, Integration And Cointegration ,"
Papers
6-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
Canova, Fabio & Ghysels, Eric, 1994.
"Changes in seasonal patterns : Are they cyclical? ,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control ,
Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1143-1171, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Canova, F. & Ghysels, E., 1992.
"Changes in Seasonal Patters: Are They Cyclical ,"
Cahiers de recherche
9216, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
[Downloadable!] Canova, F. & Ghysels, E., 1992.
"Changes in Seasonal Patters: Are They Cyclical ,"
Cahiers de recherche
9216, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
Stephen G. Cecchetti & Anil K. Kashyap & David W. Wilcox, 1997.
"Interactions between the seasonal and business cycles in production and inventories ,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
WP-97-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Other versions: Canova, Fabio & Hansen, Bruce E, 1995.
"Are Seasonal Patterns Constant over Time? A Test for Seasonal Stability ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 237-52, July.
Lundbergh, Stefan & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2000.
"Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models ,"
Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
376, Stockholm School of Economics.
Other versions: Carpenter, Robert E & Levy, Daniel, 1998.
"Seasonal Cycles, Business Cycles, and the Comovement of Inventory Investment and Output ,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking ,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 331-46, August.
Krane, Spencer & Wascher, William, 1999.
"The cyclical sensitivity of seasonality in U.S. employment ,"
Journal of Monetary Economics ,
Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 523-553, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Michael J. Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2006.
"Contemporaneous threshold autoregressive models: estimation, testing and forecasting ,"
Working Papers
2003-024, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Michael Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2007.
"Contemporaneous Threshold Autoregressive Models: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting ,"
Discussion Papers
5_2007, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
[Downloadable!] Dueker, Michael J. & Sola, Martin & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2007.
"Contemporaneous threshold autoregressive models: Estimation, testing and forecasting ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 517-547, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) João Paulo Martin Faleiros & Denisard Cnéio de Oliveira Alves, 2006.
"Não Linearidade Nos Ciclos De Negócios: Modelo Auto-Regressivo “Smooth Transition” Para O Índice Geral De Produção Industrial Brasileiro E Bens De Capital ,"
Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting]
10, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
[Downloadable!]
Candelon, Bertrand & Dupuy, Arnaud & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008.
"The Nature of Occupational Unemployment Rates in the United States: Hysteresis or Structural? ,"
IZA Discussion Papers
3571, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
[Downloadable!]
Galvão, Ana Beatriz C., 2003.
"Structural Break Threshold VARs for Predicting US Recessions using the Spread ,"
Ibmec Working Papers
wpe_37, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Access and
download statistics Did you know? RePEc and its associated services are free for contributors and users, and do not accept any advertising.
This page was last updated on 2008-8-11.
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics , College of Liberal Arts and Sciences , University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics .