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Bayesian analysis of seasonal unit roots and seasonal mean shifts

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  • Franses, Philip Hans
  • Hoek, Henk
  • Paap, Richard

Abstract

In this paper we propose a Bayesian analysis of seasonal unit roots in quarterly observed time series. Seasonal unit root processes are useful to describe economic series with changing seasonal fluctuations. A natural alternative model for similar purposes contains deterministic seasonal mean shifts instead of seasonal stochastic trends. This leads to analysing seasonal unit roots in the presence of mean shifts using Bayesian techniques. Our method is illustrated using several simulated and empirical data.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 78 (1997)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 359-380

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:78:y:1997:i:2:p:359-380

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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References

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  1. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  2. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
  3. Vogelsang, T.I. & Perron, P., 1991. "Nonstationary and Level Shifts With An Application To Purchasing Power Parity," Papers 359, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  4. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1994. "Bayes inference in regression models with ARMA (p, q) errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 183-206.
  5. DeJong, David N. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1991. "Reconsidering 'trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 221-254, October.
  6. Hylleberg, Svend & Jorgensen, Clara & Sorensen, Nils Karl, 1993. "Seasonality in Macroeconomic Time Series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 321-35.
  7. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Hylleberg, S. & Lee, H. S., 1993. "The Japanese consumption function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 275-298.
  8. Paap, Richard & Franses, Philip Hans & Hoek, Henk, 1997. "Mean shifts, unit roots and forecasting seasonal time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 357-368, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Todd, Richard M., 2002. "The conventional treatment of seasonality in business cycle analysis: does it create distortions?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 335-364, March.
  2. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2001. "The forecasting performance of various models for seasonality and nonlinearity for quarterly industrial production," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2001-14, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  3. Rolando Gonzales Martinez, 2012. "Baysian seasonal analysis with robust priors," Investigación & Desarrollo 0312, Universidad Privada Boliviana, revised Jan 2012.
  4. Hassler, Uwe & Rodrigues, Paulo M. M., 2002. "Seasonal Unit Root Tests under Structural Breaks," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 37696, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute of Economics (VWL).
  5. Artur C. B. da Silva Lopes & Antonio Montanes, 2005. "The Behavior Of Hegy Tests For Quarterly Time Series With Seasonal Mean Shifts," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 83-108.
  6. Raimundo Soto, 2000. "Ajuste Estacional e Integración en Variables Macroeconómicas," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 73, Central Bank of Chile.
  7. Kunst, Robert M., 1997. "Decision Bounds for Data-Admissible Seasonal Models," Economics Series 51, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  8. Paap, Richard & Franses, Philip Hans & Hoek, Henk, 1997. "Mean shifts, unit roots and forecasting seasonal time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 357-368, September.
  9. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Newbold, Paul, 2002. "Seasonal unit root tests with seasonal mean shifts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 295-302, July.
  10. Mickael Salabasis & Sune Karlsson, 2004. "Seasonality, Cycles and Unit Roots," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 268, Econometric Society.

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