Seasonality, Cycles and Unit Roots
AbstractInference on ordinary unit roots, seasonal unit roots, seasonality and business cycles are fundamental issues in time series econometrics. This paper proposes a novel approach to inference on these features by focusing directly on the roots of the autoregressive polynomial rather than taking the standard route via the autoregressive coefficients. Allowing for unknown lag lengths and adopting a Bayesian approach we obtain posterior probabilities for the presence of these features in the data as well as the usual posteriors for the parameters of the model
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings with number 268.
Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Bayesian model averaging; autoregressive models;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-10-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2004-10-30 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2004-10-30 (Econometric Time Series)
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