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Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models with Applications to U.S. Macroeconomic and Financial Time Series

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Author Info
Donald W.K. Andrews () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)
Hong-Yuan Chen

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Abstract

This paper introduces approximately median-unbiased estimators for univariate AR(p) models with time trends. Confidence intervals also are considered. The methods are applied to the Nelson-Plosser macroeconomic data series, the extended Nelson-Plosser macroeconomic data series, and some annual stock dividend and price series. The results show that most of the series exhibit substantially greater persistence than least squares estimates and some Bayesian estimates suggest. For example, for the extended Nelson-Plosser data set, eight of the fourteen series are estimated to have a unit root, while six are estimated to be trend stationary. In contrast, the least squares estimates indicate trend stationarity for all of the series.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1026.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Aug 1992
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Business and Economic Statistics (April 1994), 12(2): 186-204
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1026

Note: CFP 867.
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Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Related research
Keywords: Autoregressive model; macroeconomic time series; median-unbiased estimator; unit root model;

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Orcutt, Guy H & Winokur, Herbert S, Jr, 1969. "First Order Autoregression: Inference, Estimation, and Prediction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(1), pages 1-14, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "Bayesian Routes and Unit Roots: de rebus prioribus semper est disputandum," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 986, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Donald W.K. Andrews & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1986. "Best Median Unbiased Estimation in Linear Regression with Bounded Asymmetric Loss Functions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 786, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  4. Peter C.B. Phillips & Werner Ploberger, 1991. "Time Series Modelling with a Bayesian Frame of Reference: 1. Concepts and Illustrations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 980, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  5. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1991. "Exactly Unbiased Estimation of First Order Autoregressive-Unit Root Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 975, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  6. DeJong, David N. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1991. "Reconsidering 'trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 221-254, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 333-64, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. DeJong, David N. & Nankervis, John C. & Savin, N. E. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1992. "The power problems of unit root test in time series with autoregressive errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 323-343. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. DeJong, David N & Whiteman, Charles H, 1991. "The Temporal Stability of Dividends and Stock Prices: Evidence from the Likelihood Function," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 600-617, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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