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Test Procedures for Unit Roots in Time Series with Level Shifts at Unknown Time

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Author Info
Markku Lanne (University of Helsinki)
Helmut Lutkepohl (European University Institute, Florence, and Humboldt University Berlin)
Pentti Saikkonen (University of Helsinki)

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Abstract

Two types of unit root tests which accommodate a structural level shift at a known point in time are extended to the situation where the break date is unknown. It is shown that for any estimator for the break date the tests have the same asymptotic distribution as the corresponding tests under the known break date assumption. Different estimators of the break date are compared in a Monte Carlo experiment and a recommendation for choosing the break date in small samples is given. Example series from the Nelson--Plosser data set are used to illustrate the performance of our tests. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2003.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 65 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 91-115
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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:65:y:2003:i:1:p:91-115

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  1. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
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  2. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1992. "Searching for a Break in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 237-50, July.
    Other versions:
  3. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
    Other versions:
  4. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
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  5. Kleibergen, Frank & Hoek, Henk, 1996. "Bayesian analysis of ARMA models using noninformative priors," Econometric Institute Report 39, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  6. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:2:p:359-68 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
  8. Amsler, Christine & Lee, Junsoo, 1995. "An LM Test for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Structural Change," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(02), pages 359-368, February. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Melisso Boschi, 2007. "Foreign capital in Latin America: A long-run structural Global VAR perspective," Economics Discussion Papers 647, University of Essex, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Stephan Popp, 2008. "A Nonlinear Unit Root Test in the Presence of an Unknown Break," Ruhr Economic Papers 0045, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
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  7. He, Changli & Sandberg, Rickard, 2005. "Dickey-Fuller Type of Tests against Nonlinear Dynamic Models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 580, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2009. "Exchange Rate Mean Reversion within a Target Zone: Evidence from a Country on the Periphery of the ERM," GEMF Working Papers 2009-15, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra. [Downloadable!]
  9. Joseph P. Byrne & Jun Nagayasu, 2008. "Structural Breaks in the Real Exchange Rate and Real Interest Rate Relationship," Working Papers 2008_29, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  10. Joseph P. Byrne & Roger Perman, 2006. "Unit Roots and Structural Breaks: A Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 2006_10, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  11. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2008. "International Parities among China and Her Major Trading Partners in Asia Pacific," MPRA Paper 15504, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Apr 2009. [Downloadable!]
  12. Livanis, Grigorios & Moss, Charles B., 2005. "Price Transmission and Food Scares in the U.S. Beef Sector," Working Papers 15662, University of Florida, International Agricultural Trade and Policy Center. [Downloadable!]
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  13. He, Changli & Sandberg, Rickard, 2005. "Testing for Unit Roots in Nonlinear Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 582, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Chan, Tze-Haw & Chong, Lee Lee & Khong, Wye Leong Roy, 2008. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: New Evidence with Linear and Non-linear Endogenous Break(s)," MPRA Paper 3406, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  15. Koi Nyen Wong & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2007. "Exchange Rate Variability And The Export Demand For Malaysia'S Semiconductors: An Empirical Study," Monash Economics Working Papers 13/07, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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