IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v43y2011i20p2583-2592.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Unit roots, structural breaks and cointegration in the UK public finances, 1750-2004

Author

Listed:
  • Lusine Lusinyan
  • John Thornton

Abstract

In this article, we report results from several traditional and more recently developed unit root and cointegration tests, allowing for structural breaks, which indicate that UK government revenue and spending during 1750-2004 were I(1) series and cointegrated, and that the UK public finances have been on a consistently sustainable path over the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Lusine Lusinyan & John Thornton, 2011. "Unit roots, structural breaks and cointegration in the UK public finances, 1750-2004," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(20), pages 2583-2592.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:43:y:2011:i:20:p:2583-2592
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840903299755
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840903299755
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036840903299755?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Markku Lanne & Helmut Lütkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2003. "Test Procedures for Unit Roots in Time Series with Level Shifts at Unknown Time," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(1), pages 91-115, February.
    2. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J., "undated". "Level Shifts and Purchasing Power Parity," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics levshift, Boston College Department of Economics.
    3. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
    4. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    5. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-44, March.
    6. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 451-464, October.
    7. Alan T. Peacock & Jack Wiseman, 1961. "The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number peac61-1, March.
    8. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    9. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
    10. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    11. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
    12. Markku Lanne & Helmut Lütkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2002. "Comparison of unit root tests for time series with level shifts," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(6), pages 667-685, November.
    13. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    14. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Testing For The Cointegrating Rank Of A Var Process With An Intercept," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 373-406, June.
    15. Lee, Junsoo & Huang, Cliff J. & Shin, Yongcheol, 1997. "On stationary tests in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 165-172, August.
    16. Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 1995. "Government budget deficits and trade deficits Are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 351-374, November.
    17. Steven Cook, 2004. "Spurious rejection by cointegration tests incorporating structural change in the cointegrating relationship," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(14), pages 879-884.
    18. Vogelsang, Timothy J & Perron, Pierre, 1998. "Additional Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1073-1100, November.
    19. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    20. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti & Trenkler, Carsten, 2003. "Comparison of tests for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with a structural shift," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 201-229, April.
    21. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Golpe, Antonio A. & Sánchez-Fuentes, A. Jesus & Vides, José Carlos, 2023. "Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1026-1045.
    2. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH & Foued Badr GABSI & Ameni MTIBAA, 2018. "Tax smoothing hypothesis: The Tunisian case," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(617), W), pages 169-178, Winter.
    3. Ananda Jayawickrama & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2013. "The experience of some OECD economies on tax smoothing," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2305-2313, June.
    4. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Laura Sauci, 2020. "Public finances in the EU-27: Are they sustainable?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 181-204, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, August.
    2. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    3. Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir & Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel, 2017. "Energy-growth long-term relationship under structural breaks. Evidence from Canada, 17 Latin American economies and the USA," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 121-134.
    4. Carsten Trenkler*, 2005. "The Effects of Ignoring Level Shifts on Systems Cointegration Tests," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 89(3), pages 281-301, August.
    5. Mohsen Fardmanesh & Seymour Douglas, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Controls and the Parallel Market Premium," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 72-89, February.
    6. Tarlok Singh, 2017. "Are Current Account Deficits in the OECD Countries Sustainable? Robust Evidence from Time-Series Estimators," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-64, January.
    7. Marcos José Dal Bianco, 2008. "Argentinean real exchange rate 1900-2006, test purchasing power parity theory," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1 Year 20), pages 33-64, June.
    8. Joseph P. Byrne & Roger Perman, 2006. "Unit Roots and Structural Breaks: A Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 2006_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    9. Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2013. "Asymmetries in the revenue–expenditure nexus: A tale of three countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 52-60.
    10. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Laura Sauci, 2020. "Public finances in the EU-27: Are they sustainable?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 181-204, February.
    11. Esra ALP & Ünal SEVEN, 2019. "Türkiye Konut Piyasasında Etkinlik Analizi," Istanbul Business Research, Istanbul University Business School, vol. 48(1), pages 84-112, May.
    12. Fukuda, Takashi & Dahalan, Jauhari, 2011. "“Finance-Growth-Crisis Nexus in India: Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Assessment” - L’interazione finanza-crescita-crisi in India: evidenze da una analisi di cointegrazione e causalità," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 64(3), pages 297-328.
    13. Fantazzini, Dean & Toktamysova, Zhamal, 2015. "Forecasting German car sales using Google data and multivariate models," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(PA), pages 97-135.
    14. Nedialko Nestorov, 2015. "Cointegration Approach – Application Opportunities," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 110-140.
    15. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Gold as an inflation hedge in a time-varying coefficient framework," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 208-222.
    16. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2015. "On the causal dynamics between hydroelectricity consumption and economic growth in Latin America countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1857-1868.
    17. Vicente Esteve, 2004. "Política fiscal y productividad del trabajo en la economía española: un análisis de series temporales," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, June.
    18. Ben-Salha, Ousama & Jaidi, Zied, 2014. "Some new evidence on the determinants of money demand in developing countries – A case study of Tunisia," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 30-45.
    19. Marco Morales, 2014. "Cointegration testing under structural change: reducing size distortions and improving power of residual based tests," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 23(2), pages 265-282, June.
    20. Carlomagno, Guillermo & Espasa, Antoni, 2015. "Forecasting a large set of disaggregates with common trends and outliers," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1518, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:43:y:2011:i:20:p:2583-2592. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.