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Comparison of tests for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with a structural shift

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  • Lütkepohl, Helmut
  • Saikkonen, Pentti
  • Trenkler, Carsten

Abstract

Two different types of tests for the cointegrating rank of VAR processes with a deterministic shift in the level have been proposed in the literature. The first proposal is based on the LR principle using a specific Gaussian model set-up. In the second proposal the time series are adjusted for deterministic terms first and then LR type tests are applied to the adjusted series. The local power of the two types of tests is derived and compared. Moreover, the small sample size and power properties of the tests are explored. It is found that the tests based on adjusted series generally have superior local power and size properties. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes in its series SFB 373 Discussion Papers with number 2000,10.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200010

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Keywords: local power; test size; cointegration; vector autoregressive process; error correction model;

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References

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  1. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1997. "Local power of likelihood ratio tests for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,58, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  2. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
  3. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2001. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with structural shifts," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,82, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  4. Quintos, Carmela E., 1998. "Stability tests in error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 289-315, February.
  5. Toda, Hiro Y., 1995. "Finite Sample Performance of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegrating Ranks in Vector Autoregressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1015-1032, October.
  6. Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  7. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1993. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," International Finance Discussion Papers 440, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. H. Lütkepohl & P. Saikkonen, 1997. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with a Time Trend," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,79, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  9. Inoue, Atsushi, 1999. "Tests of cointegrating rank with a trend-break," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 215-237, June.
  10. Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration Analysis in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Deterministic Trend," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1494, Econometric Society.
  11. Toda, Hiro Y, 1994. "Finite Sample Properties of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegrating Ranks when Linear Trends are Present," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 66-79, February.
  12. Seo, Byeongseon, 1998. "Tests For Structural Change In Cointegrated Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(02), pages 222-259, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Dées, Stéphane & di Mauro, Filippo & Pesaran, Hashem & Smith, Vanessa, 2005. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 0568, European Central Bank.
  2. Koukouritakis, Minoas, 2013. "Expectations hypothesis in the context of debt crisis: Evidence from five major EU countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 243-258.
  3. Minoas Koukouritakis & Nikolaos Giannellis, . "Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate and Total Misalignment: Evidence from the Euro Exchange Rate," Working Papers 0901, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
  4. Stevans, Lonnie K., 2012. "Income inequality and economic incentives: Is there an equity–efficiency tradeoff?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 149-160.
  5. Mussolini, Caio Cesar & Kuhl Teles, Vladimir, 2010. "Infrastructure and productivity in Latin America: is there a relationship in the long run?," Textos para discussão 246, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  6. Morshed, A.K.M. Mahbub & Ahn, Sung K. & Lee, Minsoo, 2006. "Price convergence among Indian cities: A cointegration approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 1030-1043, December.
  7. Karine Gente & Miguel Leon-Ledesma, 2004. "Does the World Real Interest Rate Affect the Real Exchange Rate? The South East Asian Experience," Studies in Economics 0405, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  8. Kurozumi, Eiji & Arai, Yoichi, 2005. "Efficient Estimation and Inference in Cointegrating Regressions with Structural Change," Discussion Papers 2004-09, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
  9. Carsten Trenkler*, 2005. "The Effects of Ignoring Level Shifts on Systems Cointegration Tests," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer, vol. 89(3), pages 281-301, August.
  10. Lusine Lusinyan & John Thornton, 2010. "The Intertemporal Relation Between Government Revenue and Expenditure in the United Kingdom, 1750-2004," Working Papers 10007, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
  11. Minoas Koukouritakis, 2010. "Structural breaks and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure: evidence from Central European countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(4), pages 757-774, January.
  12. Yoichi Arai & Eiji Kurozumi, 2005. "Testing for the Null Hypothesis of Cointegration with Structural Breaks (Subsequently published in "Econometric Reviews", Volume 26, Issue 6 November 2007, pages 705 - 739. )," CARF F-Series CARF-F-022, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  13. Minoas Koukouritakis & Athanasios Papadopoulos & Andreas Yannopoulos, 2013. "Transmission Effects in the Presence of Structural Breaks: Evidence from South-Eastern European Countries," Working Papers 1303, University of Crete, Department of Economics.

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