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Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend

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Author Info

  • SØREN JOHANSEN
  • ROCCO MOSCONI
  • BENT NIELSEN

Abstract

When analysing macroeconomic data it is often of relevance to allow for structural breaks in the statistical analysis. In particular, cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks could be of interest. We propose a cointegration model with piecewise linear trend and known break points. Within this model it is possible to test cointegration rank, restrictions on the cointegrating vector as well as restrictions on the slopes of the broken linear trend.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Econometrics Journal.

Volume (Year): 3 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 216-249

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Handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:3:y:2000:i:2:p:216-249

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Related research

Keywords: Break points; Cointegration; Common trend; Deterministic trend; Piecewise linear trend; Stochastic trend; Structural breaks; Vector autoregressive model.;

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References

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  1. Johansen, S., 1999. "A Bartlett Correction Factor for Tests on the Cointegrating Relations," Economics Working Papers eco99/10, European University Institute.
  2. Inoue, Atsushi, 1999. "Tests of cointegrating rank with a trend-break," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 215-237, June.
  3. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  4. Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F & Nielsen, Bent, 1998. " Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-72, December.
  5. Hendry, David F & Doornik, Jurgen A, 1994. "Modelling Linear Dynamic Econometric Systems," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(1), pages 1-33, February.
  6. Doornik, Jurgen A, 1998. " Approximations to the Asymptotic Distributions of Cointegration Tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-93, December.
  7. David Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000. "Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures," Economics Series Working Papers 3, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  8. Kuo, Biing-Shen, 1998. "Test for partial parameter instability in regressions with I(1) processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 337-368, June.
  9. Johansen, S., 2000. "A Small Sample Correction of the Test for Cointegrating Rank in the Vector Autoregressive Model," Economics Working Papers eco2000/15, European University Institute.
  10. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, December.
  11. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000. "Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0411, Econometric Society.
  12. Nielsen, Bent & Rahbek, Anders, 2000. " Similarity Issues in Cointegration Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(1), pages 5-22, February.
  13. Rappoport, Peter & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1989. "Segmented Trends and Non-stationary Time Series," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 168-77, Supplemen.
  14. Hendry, David F, 1997. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Forecasting," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(444), pages 1330-57, September.
  15. Seo, Byeongseon, 1998. "Tests For Structural Change In Cointegrated Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(02), pages 222-259, April.
  16. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Estimating Cointegration Models with Structural Breaks
    by David Stern in Stochastic Trend on 2011-11-13 11:35:00
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