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The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Forecasting

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Author Info
Hendry, David F

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Abstract

When an econometric model coincides with the mechanism generating the data in an unchanging world, the theory of economic forecasting is reasonably well developed. However, less is known about forecasting when model and mechanism differ in a nonstationary and changing world. This paper addresses the basic concepts; the invariance of forecast accuracy measures to isopmorphic model representations; the roles of causal information, parsimony, and collinearity; a reformulated taxonomy of forecast errors; differencing and intercept corrections to robustify forecasts against biases due to shifts in deterministic factors; the removal of structural breaks by cobreaking; and forecasting using leading indicators. Copyright 1997 by Royal Economic Society.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 107 (1997)
Issue (Month): 444 (September)
Pages: 1330-57
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:107:y:1997:i:444:p:1330-57

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  2. Daniel J. Wilson, 2001. "Embodying embodiment in a structural, macroeconomic input-output model," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2001-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Reza Anglingkusumo, 2005. "Money - Inflation Nexus in Indonesia: Evidence from a P-Star Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-054/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  4. John Muellbauer, 2000. "Earnings, Unemployment, and Housing: Evidence from a Panel of British Regions," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1608, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Filippo Altissimo & Valentina Corradi, 2000. "Strong Rules for Detecting the Number of Breaks in a Time Series," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0574, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Fiess, Norbert, 2003. "Capital flows, country risk, and contagion," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2943, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2004. "Monitoring for Disruptions in Financial Markets," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-26, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  9. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer, 2001. "Earnings, unemployment, and housing in Britain," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 203-220. [Downloadable!]
  10. Reza Anglingkusumo, 2005. "Stability of the Demand for Real Narrow Money in lndonesia," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-051/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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