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US dollar/Euro exchange rate: a monthly econometric model for forecasting

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Author Info
Domenico Sartore
Lucia Trevisan
Michele Trova
Francesca Volo

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Abstract

The intent of this paper is the construction of an econometric model able to produce reliable and reasonable forecasts for the US dollar/Euro real exchange rate. In order to achieve this aim, an area-wide model is analysed. The aggregation is motivated by the fact that the Euro-zone is under a single monetary policy. Furthermore, a more parsimonious parametric model enables one to consider an important source of non stationarity given by the presence of structural breaks using the multivariate cointegration analysis. Against the Meese-Rogoff critique, the out-of-sample one-step-ahead forecasts using actual values of the exogenous produced by the estimated VECM are reasonably satisfactory.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 8 (2002)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 480-501
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Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:8:y:2002:i:4:p:480-501

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Related research
Keywords: Real Exchange Rates; Cointegration; Structural Breaks; Area-WIDE Model; Forecasting;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Seo, Byeongseon, 1998. "Tests For Structural Change In Cointegrated Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(02), pages 222-259, April. [Downloadable!]
  2. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 1992. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 143-172. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1988. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Covariances," Working papers 505, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  5. Inoue, Atsushi, 1999. "Tests of cointegrating rank with a trend-break," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 215-237, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ronald MacDonald, 1997. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of It," IMF Working Papers 97/21, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Rappoport, Peter & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1989. "Segmented Trends and Non-stationary Time Series," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 168-77, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
  12. Nielsen, Bent & Rahbek, Anders, 2000. " Similarity Issues in Cointegration Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(1), pages 5-22, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Costas Karfakis, 2008. "What Determines the Forward Exchange Rate of the Euro?," Discussion Paper Series 2008_02, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Feb 2008. [Downloadable!]
  2. Costas Karfakis, 2006. "Is there an empirical link between the dollar price of the euro and the monetary fundamentals?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(13), pages 973-980, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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