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Is there an empirical link between the dollar price of the euro and the monetary fundamentals?

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  • Costas Karfakis

Abstract

This paper examines the empirical link between the dollar exchange rate of the euro and the monetary fundamentals. The exchange rate is found to be cointegrated with money and income differentials, while the homogeneity restrictions are supported by the data. The weak form restrictions of the present-value model of the foreign exchange market are not rejected by the data, but the most stringent restrictions are strongly rejected. An estimated error-correction model explains a substantial part of the short-run exchange rate volatility and outperforms the random walk forecasts.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 16 (2006)
Issue (Month): 13 ()
Pages: 973-980

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:16:y:2006:i:13:p:973-980

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  1. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
  2. Robin Brooks & Torsten Sløk & Manmohan S. Kumar & Hali J. Edison, 2001. "Exchange Rates and Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 01/190, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Ronald MacDonald & Mark P. Taylor, 1992. "The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 92/34, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  5. Domenico Sartore & Lucia Trevisan & Michele Trova & Francesca Volo, 2002. "US dollar/Euro exchange rate: a monthly econometric model for forecasting," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 480-501.
  6. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 51-74.
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Cited by:
  1. Costas Karfakis, 2008. "What Determines the Forward Exchange Rate of the Euro?," Discussion Paper Series 2008_02, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Feb 2008.
  2. Levent, Korap, 2008. "Exchange rate determination of TL/US$: a co-integration approach," MPRA Paper 19659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Costas Karfakis, 2008. "Does the US international debt affect the euro/dollar exchange rate?," Discussion Paper Series 2008_06, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Sep 2008.

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