Tourism, real output and real effective exchange rate in Malaysia: a view from rolling sub-samples
AbstractThe objective of this study is to examine the tourism-growth nexus for Malaysia with the cointegration and Granger causality tests. This study covers the monthly data from January 1989 to May 2010. The Johansen’s cointegration and the residuals-based test for cointegration with regime shift consistently suggest that tourist arrivals, real output, and real effective exchange rate in Malaysia are cointegrated. In terms of Granger causality, this study finds different sources of causality. In the short run, real output and real effective exchange rate Granger-cause tourist arrivals, while tourists arrivals also Granger-cause real output and real effective exchange rate. In the long run, this study shows that all the variables are bi-directional causality. Moreover, we also extend the study to analyse the stability of causality between tourism and real output by using rolling regression procedure into the Granger causality test. Interestingly, the rolling Granger causality test demonstrates that the growth-led tourism hypothesis is valid and stable, while tourism-led growth hypothesis is valid and but unstable in particular after 2005. Although tourism contributes to economic growth, it is not a persistence source for long-term economic growth in Malaysia.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 29379.
Date of creation: Feb 2011
Date of revision:
tourism-led growth hypothesis; Malaysia; rolling regression;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-03-19 (All new papers)
- NEP-FDG-2011-03-19 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-TUR-2011-03-19 (Tourism Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
- Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992.
"residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts,"
862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
- Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Mansor H. Ibrahim & Hassanuddeen Aziz, 2003. "Macroeconomic variables and the Malaysian equity market: A view through rolling subsamples," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 6-27, January.
- Tsangyao Chang & Wenshwo Fang & Li-Fang Wen, 2001. "Energy consumption, employment, output, and temporal causality: evidence from Taiwan based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 1045-1056.
- Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2002.
"Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 877-884.
- Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jordá, 2000. "Tourism As A Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case," Working Papers. Serie EC 2000-10, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Jeroen J.M. Kremers & Neil R. Ericsson & Juan J. Dolado, 1992.
"The power of cointegration tests,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
431, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Chor Foon Tang, 2009. "How Stable is the Demand for Money in Malaysia? New Empirical Evidence from Rolling Regression," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3-4), pages 85-100, August.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
- Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Tom Doan, . "ZIVOT: RATS procedure to perform Zivot-Andrews Unit Root Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00236, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Schwert, G William, 2002.
"Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
- Tilak Abeysinghe & Tan Khay Boon, 1999. "Small sample estimation of a cointegrating vector: an empirical evaluation of six estimation techniques," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(10), pages 645-648.
- Lau, Evan & Oh, Swee-Ling & Hu, Sing-Sing, 2008. "Tourist Arrivals And Economic Growth In Sarawak," MPRA Paper 9888, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986.
"Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Chang, Tsangyao & Nieh, Chien-Chung, 2004. "A note on testing the causal link between construction activity and economic growth in Taiwan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 591-598, June.
- Nijkamp, Peter & Mills, Edwin S., 1987. "Advances in regional economics," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: P. Nijkamp (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 1-17 Elsevier.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Thoma, Mark A., 1994. "Subsample instability and asymmetries in money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 279-306.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Chor Foon Tang, 2010. "The Money-prices Nexus for Malaysia: New Empirical Evidence from the Time-varying Cointegration and Causality Tests," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 383-403.
- Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1982. "Non-causality due to omitted variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 367-378, August.
- Hjelm, Goran & Johansson, Martin W., 2005. "A Monte Carlo study on the pitfalls in determining deterministic components in cointegrating models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 691-703, December.
- Isabel Cortes-Jimenez & Manuela Pulina, 2006. "Tourism and Growth: Evidence for Spain and Italy," ERSA conference papers ersa06p128, European Regional Science Association.
- Chor Foon Tang, 2008. "Wagner’s Law versus Keynesian Hypothesis: New Evidence from Recursive Regression-Based Causality Approaches," The IUP Journal of Public Finance, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 29-38, November.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Granger, Clive W J, 1996. "Can We Improve the Perceived Quality of Economic Forecasts?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 455-73, Sept.-Oct.
- M. Thea Sinclair, 1998. "Tourism and economic development: A survey," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(5), pages 1-51.
- Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H., 1995. "The great wars, the great crash, and steady state growth: Some new evidence about an old stylized fact," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 453-475, December.
- Aaltonen, J. & Östermark, R., 1997. "A rolling test of granger causality between the Finnish and Japanese security markets," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 635-642, December.
- Lokman Gunduz & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 499-504.
- Muscatelli, Vito Antonio & Hurn, A Stan, 1992. " Cointegration and Dynamic Time Series Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 1-43.
- Hallam, David & Zanoli, Raffaele, 1993. "Error Correction Models and Agricultural Supply Response," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 20(2), pages 151-66.
- Swanson, Norman R., 1998. "Money and output viewed through a rolling window," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 455-474, May.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.