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Tourism and growth in Lebanon: new evidence from bootstrap simulation and rolling causality approaches

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  • Chor Foon Tang

    (Universiti Sains Malaysia)

  • Salah Abosedra

    (American University in the Emirates)

Abstract

A multivariate model incorporating tourist arrivals, real output, and the real exchange rate is estimated to study the causal relationship between tourism and economic growth in Lebanon. This study covers the monthly data from January 1995 to December 2011. The Granger causality between the variables of interest is determined using the TYDL bootstrap causality approach. Then, we apply the Granger causality with rolling regression technique to evaluate the stability of the tourism-led growth hypothesis in Lebanon. We find that the tourism-led growth hypothesis is supported empirically in the case of the Lebanese economy. Meanwhile, we also find some evidences of uni-directional Granger causality running from the real exchange rate to tourism and economic growth in Lebanon. Therefore, tourism can be used a policy instrument to stimulate long-term economic growth in Lebanon.

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  • Chor Foon Tang & Salah Abosedra, 2016. "Tourism and growth in Lebanon: new evidence from bootstrap simulation and rolling causality approaches," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 679-696, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:50:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-015-0944-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-015-0944-9
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    3. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“A regional perspective on the accuracy of machine learning forecasts of tourism demand based on data characteristics”," IREA Working Papers 201805, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2018.
    4. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ferrer, Román & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Haouas, Ilham, 2017. "Is the tourism-economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top ten tourist destinations," MPRA Paper 82713, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Nov 2017.
    5. Xiaojie Xu, 2019. "Price dynamics in corn cash and futures markets: cointegration, causality, and forecasting through a rolling window approach," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 33(2), pages 155-181, June.
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    7. Tang, Chor Foon & Aviral Kumar, Tiwari & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2016. "Dynamic Inter-relationships among tourism, economic growth and energy consumption in India," MPRA Paper 69848, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Mar 2016.
    8. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ferrer, Román & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh, 2017. "Tourism-led growth hypothesis in the top ten tourist destinations: New evidence using the quantile-on-quantile approach," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 223-232.
    9. Peter Wanke & Otávio Henrique dos Santos Figueiredo & Jorge Junio Moreira Antunes, 2019. "Unveiling endogeneity and temporal dependence between tourism revenues/expenditures and macroeconomic variables in Brazil: A stochastic hidden Markov model approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(1), pages 3-21, February.
    10. Martin Falk & Xiang Lin, 2018. "Income elasticity of overnight stays over seven decades," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(8), pages 1015-1028, December.
    11. Martin Falk & Xiang Lin, 2018. "The declining dependence of ski lift operators on natural snow conditions," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(6), pages 662-676, September.
    12. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ramzi Benkraiem & Anthony Miloudi & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2019. "Tourism-induced financial development in Malaysia: New evidence from the tourism development index," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(5), pages 757-778, August.
    13. Adamopoulos, Antonios, 2021. "A System Equation Model for Tourism and Economic Growth," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 74(3), pages 311-334.
    14. Sauveur Giannoni & Juan M. Hernández & Jorge V. Pérez-Rodríguez, 2020. "Economic growth and market segment choice in tourism-based economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1435-1452, September.
    15. Gokhan Karhan, 2019. "Does Renewable Energy Increase Growth? Evidence from EU-19 Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(2), pages 341-346.
    16. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Román Ferrer, 2020. "Dynamic spillover effects among tourism, economic growth and macro-finance risk factors," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 19(3), pages 173-194, September.
    17. Ghassan Dibeh & Ali Fakih & Walid Marrouch, 2020. "Tourism–growth nexus under duress: Lebanon during the Syrian crisis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(3), pages 353-370, May.
    18. Waheed Ahmad & Tariq Majeed & Zubaria Andlib, 2020. "Tourism Led Growth Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence From Five South Asian Countries," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(1), pages 51-59, March.
    19. Nino Fonseca & Marcelino Sánchez-Rivero, 2020. "Significance bias in the tourism-led growth literature," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(1), pages 137-154, February.
    20. Marta Matyjaszek & Gregorio Fidalgo Valverde & Alicja Krzemień & Krzysztof Wodarski & Pedro Riesgo Fernández, 2020. "Optimizing Predictor Variables in Artificial Neural Networks When Forecasting Raw Material Prices for Energy Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-15, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bootstrap causality; Rolling causality; Tourism-growth; Lebanon;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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