IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/toueco/v26y2020i1p137-154.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Significance bias in the tourism-led growth literature

Author

Listed:
  • Nino Fonseca

    (Polytechnic Institute of Viana do Castelo, Portugal)

  • Marcelino Sánchez-Rivero

    (University of Extremadura, Spain)

Abstract

We use an original meta-regression analysis to test the existence of bias of statistical significance in the literature on the study of Granger causality relationships between tourism and income. We conclude for the presence of such bias. We also conclude that some methodological choices are more likely to lead to statistically significant results. Additionally, we find that the empirical association between tourism and income is stronger the shorter the time horizon analyzed and that it is correlated with the countries' economic, touristic and demographic profile. Altogether, our results suggest that there are reasons to mistrust the typical methodological approach followed by the literature reviewed and cast doubt on its usual implications for economic policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Nino Fonseca & Marcelino Sánchez-Rivero, 2020. "Significance bias in the tourism-led growth literature," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(1), pages 137-154, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:26:y:2020:i:1:p:137-154
    DOI: 10.1177/1354816619833564
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1354816619833564
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/1354816619833564?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann & Arvind Patel & Nikeel Kumar & Selvin Prasad, 2016. "Exploring the Nexus Between Tourism and Output in Cook Islands: An ARDL Bounds Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 1085-1101, September.
    2. Laroche, P., 2000. "What do Unions do to Productivity? A Meta-Analysis," Papers 2000-5, Groupe de recherche en économie financière et en gestion des entreprises, Universite Nancy 2.
    3. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    4. T.D. Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos & Margaret Giles & Jost Heckemeyer & Robert Johnston & Patrice Laroche & Jon Nelson & Martin Paldam & Jacques Poot & Geoff Pugh & Randall Rosenberger & Katja Rost, 2013. "Meta-analysis of economics research reporting guidelines," Post-Print hal-02137661, HAL.
    5. Mohammad Jaforullah, 2015. "International tourism and economic growth in New Zealand," Working Papers 1502, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2015.
    6. Tugcu, Can Tansel, 2014. "Tourism and economic growth nexus revisited: A panel causality analysis for the case of the Mediterranean Region," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 207-212.
    7. Jamal Husein & S. Murat Kara, 2011. "Research Note: Re-Examining the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis for Turkey," Tourism Economics, , vol. 17(4), pages 917-924, August.
    8. Mehmet Balcilar & Rene頶an Eyden & Roula Inglesi-Lotz & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in South Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(36), pages 4381-4398, December.
    9. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2002. "Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 877-884.
    10. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    11. Jean-Jacques Nowak & Mondher Sahli & Isabel Cortés-Jiménez, 2007. "Tourism, Capital Good Imports and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence for Spain," Tourism Economics, , vol. 13(4), pages 515-536, December.
    12. Colin B. Begg & Jesse A. Berlin, 1988. "Publication Bias: A Problem in Interpreting Medical Data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 151(3), pages 419-445, May.
    13. Samina Khalil & Mehmood Khan Kakar & Waliullah, 2007. "Role of Tourism in Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan Economy," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 985-995.
    14. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2016. "On the tourism-led growth hypothesis in the UAE: a bootstrap approach with leveraged adjustments," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 424-427, April.
    15. Chor Foon Tang & Salah Abosedra, 2016. "Tourism and growth in Lebanon: new evidence from bootstrap simulation and rolling causality approaches," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 679-696, March.
    16. T. D. Stanley, 2005. "Integrating the Empirical Tests of the Natural Rate Hypothesis: A Meta‐Regression Analysis," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 611-634, November.
    17. Stephan B. Bruns, Christian Gross and David I. Stern, 2014. "Is There Really Granger Causality Between Energy Use and Output?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    18. Jonathan A.C. Sterne & Roger M. Harbord, 2004. "Funnel plots in meta-analysis," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 4(2), pages 127-141, June.
    19. Arslanturk, Yalcin & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2011. "Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 664-671.
    20. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    21. Ashenfelter, Orley & Harmon, Colm & Oosterbeek, Hessel, 1999. "A review of estimates of the schooling/earnings relationship, with tests for publication bias," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 453-470, November.
    22. World Bank, 2015. "World Development Indicators 2015," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 21634, December.
    23. Nicola Lacetera & Lorenzo Zirulia, 2011. "The Economics of Scientific Misconduct," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 568-603.
    24. Holger Görg & Eric Strobl, 2016. "Multinational Companies And Productivity Spillovers: A Meta-Analysis," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: MULTINATIONAL ENTERPRISES AND HOST COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT Volume 53: World Scientific Studies in International Economics, chapter 8, pages 145-161, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    25. Isabel Cortés-Jiménez & Jean-Jacques Nowak & Mondher Sahli, 2011. "Mass Beach Tourism and Economic Growth: Lessons from Tunisia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 17(3), pages 531-547, June.
    26. Tang, Chor Foon, 2011. "Tourism, real output and real effective exchange rate in Malaysia: a view from rolling sub-samples," MPRA Paper 29379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    28. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    29. Brida, Juan Gabriel & Pereyra, Juan Sebastián & Such, María Jesús & Pulina, Manuela, 2011. "Causalidad entre turismo y crecimiento económico de largo plazo: una revisión crítica de la literatura econométrica [Causality between tourism and long-term economic growth: a critical review of th," MPRA Paper 37332, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
    30. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    31. T.D. Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos & Margaret Giles & Jost H. Heckemeyer & Robert J. Johnston & Patrice Laroche & Jon P. Nelson & Martin Paldam & Jacques Poot & Geoff Pugh & Randall S. Rosenberger & , 2013. "Meta-Analysis Of Economics Research Reporting Guidelines," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 390-394, April.
    32. Salih Katircioglu, 2009. "Tourism, trade and growth: the case of Cyprus," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(21), pages 2741-2750.
    33. Bishnu Prasad Gautam, Ph.D., 2011. "Tourism and Economic Growth in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 23(2), pages 18-30, October.
    34. repec:fth:prinin:425 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Bishnu Prasad Gautam Ph.D., 2011. "Tourism and Economic Growth in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 23(2), pages 18-30, October.
    36. Necker, Sarah, 2014. "Scientific misbehavior in economics," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(10), pages 1747-1759.
    37. Chris (hristos) Doucouliagos & Patrice Laroche & T.D. Stanley, 2005. "Publication Bias in Union-Productivity Research? [¿ Publicación tendenciosa en la investigación sobre la productividad sindical ?]," Post-Print hal-02138187, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Narayan, Seema & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Tobing, Lutzardo, 2021. "Has tourism influenced Indonesia’s current account?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 225-237.
    2. Garrod Brian & Almeida António & Machado Luiz, 2023. "Modelling of nonlinear asymmetric effects of changes in tourism on economic growth in an autonomous small-island economy," European Journal of Tourism, Hospitality and Recreation, Sciendo, vol. 13(2), pages 154-172, December.
    3. Okumus, Fevzi & Kocak, Emrah, 2023. "Tourism and economic output: Do asymmetries matter?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    4. Nikeel Nishkar Kumar & Arvind Patel & Ravinay Amit Chandra & Navneet Nimesh Kumar, 2021. "Publication bias and the tourism-led growth hypothesis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(10), pages 1-18, October.
    5. Nikeel Nishkar Kumar & Arvind Patel & Sean Kimpton & Antony Andrews, 2022. "Asymmetric reactions in the tourism‐led growth hypothesis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 661-677, December.
    6. Mosab I. Tabash & Suhaib Anagreh & Bilal Haider Subhani & Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan & Krzysztof Drachal, 2023. "Tourism, Remittances, and Foreign Investment as Determinants of Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Selected Asian Economies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-15, February.
    7. Recep Ulucak & Ali Gökhan Yücel & Salih Çağrı İlkay, 2020. "Dynamics of tourism demand in Turkey: Panel data analysis using gravity model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1394-1414, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    2. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ferrer, Román & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Haouas, Ilham, 2017. "Is the tourism-economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top ten tourist destinations," MPRA Paper 82713, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Nov 2017.
    3. Peter Josef Stauvermann & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Nikeel N. Kumar, 2018. "Effect of tourism on economic growth of Sri Lanka: accounting for capital per worker, exchange rate and structural breaks," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 49-68, February.
    4. Jesús Iglesias & Manuel E Gegundez & Antonio A Golpe & José Carlos Vides, 2018. "How do foreign income shocks affect the magnitude of Spanish tourism?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(7), pages 839-871, November.
    5. Nikeel Kumar & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Radika Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann, 2020. "Is the tourism–growth relationship asymmetric in the Cook Islands? Evidence from NARDL cointegration and causality tests," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(4), pages 658-681, June.
    6. Stanley, T.D. & Doucouliagos, Chris & Jarrell, Stephen B., 2008. "Meta-regression analysis as the socio-economics of economics research," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 276-292, February.
    7. Perles-Ribes, José Francisco & Ramón-Rodríguez, Ana Belén & Rubia, Antonio & Moreno-Izquierdo, Luis, 2017. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid after the global economic and financial crisis? The case of Spain 1957–2014," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 96-109.
    8. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ramzi Benkraiem & Anthony Miloudi & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2019. "Tourism-induced financial development in Malaysia: New evidence from the tourism development index," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(5), pages 757-778, August.
    9. Ghassan Dibeh & Ali Fakih & Walid Marrouch, 2020. "Tourism–growth nexus under duress: Lebanon during the Syrian crisis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(3), pages 353-370, May.
    10. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ferrer, Román & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh, 2017. "Tourism-led growth hypothesis in the top ten tourist destinations: New evidence using the quantile-on-quantile approach," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 223-232.
    11. Stephan B. Bruns, Christian Gross and David I. Stern, 2014. "Is There Really Granger Causality Between Energy Use and Output?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    12. Tang, Chor Foon & Aviral Kumar, Tiwari & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2016. "Dynamic Inter-relationships among tourism, economic growth and energy consumption in India," MPRA Paper 69848, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Mar 2016.
    13. Liu, Yaping & Sadiq, Farah & Ali, Wajahat & Kumail, Tafazal, 2022. "Does tourism development, energy consumption, trade openness and economic growth matters for ecological footprint: Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve and pollution haven hypothesis for Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    14. Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Pires Manso, José R., 2012. "Does Portuguese economy support crude oil conservation hypothesis?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 628-634.
    15. Chien-Ming Wang & Tsung-Pao Wu, 2022. "Does tourism promote or reduce environmental pollution? Evidence from major tourist arrival countries," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 3334-3355, March.
    16. Mattia Filomena & Matteo Picchio, 2023. "Retirement and health outcomes in a meta‐analytical framework," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1120-1155, September.
    17. Hasan Murat Ertugrul & Fatih Mangir, 2015. "The tourism-led growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from Turkey," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(7), pages 633-646, July.
    18. Abdul Rehman & Hengyun Ma & Muhammad Irfan & Munir Ahmad & Ousmane Traore, 2020. "Investigating the Influence of International Tourism in Pakistan and Its Linkage to Economic Growth: Evidence From ARDL Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, June.
    19. Irwan Shah Zainal Abidin & Muhammad Haseeb & Muhammad Azam & Rabiul Islam, 2015. "Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Development, International Trade and Energy Consumption: Panel Data Evidence from Selected ASEAN Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 841-850.
    20. Andrew Phiri, 2016. "Tourism and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Cointegration Frameworks," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 14(1 (Spring), pages 31-53.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:26:y:2020:i:1:p:137-154. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.