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Publication bias and the tourism-led growth hypothesis

Author

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  • Nikeel Nishkar Kumar
  • Arvind Patel
  • Ravinay Amit Chandra
  • Navneet Nimesh Kumar

Abstract

This study attempts to solve the publication bias suggested by recent review articles in the tourism-growth literature. Publication bias is the tendency to report favourable and significant results. Method and data triangulation, and the Solow-Swan model are applied. A sample from 1995 to 2018 is considered with Tonga as a case study. The approach consists of multiple methods, data frequencies, exchange rates, structural breaks, and an overall tourism index developed using principal component analysis (PCA). Consistent results across these dimensions are obtained with the PCA models. Tourism has small, positive, and statistically significant economic growth effects. Theoretically consistent values of the capital share and exchange rates are obtained. The results indicate the importance of multiple methods and the overall tourism index in assessing the tourism-growth relationship and minimising publication biases. The practical implication is the provision of robust elasticity estimates and better economic policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikeel Nishkar Kumar & Arvind Patel & Ravinay Amit Chandra & Navneet Nimesh Kumar, 2021. "Publication bias and the tourism-led growth hypothesis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(10), pages 1-18, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0258730
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0258730
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. T.D. Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos, 2010. "Picture This: A Simple Graph That Reveals Much Ado About Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 170-191, February.
    2. Isaiah Andrews & Maximilian Kasy, 2019. "Identification of and Correction for Publication Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(8), pages 2766-2794, August.
    3. Ghassan Dibeh & Ali Fakih & Walid Marrouch, 2020. "Tourism–growth nexus under duress: Lebanon during the Syrian crisis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(3), pages 353-370, May.
    4. Stefan F. Schubert, 2010. "Coping with Externalities in Tourism: A Dynamic Optimal Taxation Approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(2), pages 321-343, June.
    5. Nino Fonseca & Marcelino Sánchez-Rivero, 2020. "Significance bias in the tourism-led growth literature," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(1), pages 137-154, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Garrod Brian & Almeida António & Machado Luiz, 2023. "Modelling of nonlinear asymmetric effects of changes in tourism on economic growth in an autonomous small-island economy," European Journal of Tourism, Hospitality and Recreation, Sciendo, vol. 13(2), pages 154-172, December.

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