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Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in a small open economy

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  • Arslanturk, Yalcin
  • Balcilar, Mehmet
  • Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin

Abstract

The causal link between tourism receipts and GDP has recently become the major focus of some recent studies in tourism economics. Results obtained in these studies about the causal link appear to be sensitive with respect to the countries analyzed, sample period and methodology employed. Considering the sensitivity of the causal link, we use the rolling window and time-varying coefficients estimation methods to analyze the Granger causality based on Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). When applied to Turkey for the 1963-2006 periods, this methodology enables us to overcome differences in the outcome of the tests performed in other studies for tourism receipts and GDP. The findings of this paper are as follows: results from the full sample within the VECM model indicate that there is no Granger causality between the series, while the findings from the time-varying coefficients model based on the state-space model and rolling window technique show that GDP has no predictive power for tourism receipts; however, tourism receipts have a positive-predictive content for GDP following early 1980s.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (January)
Pages: 664-671

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1-2:p:664-671

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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Keywords: Tourism receipts Economic growth Time-varying causality Time-varying coefficient model;

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Cited by:
  1. Antonio Di Paolo & Aysit Tansel, 2013. "“Returns to Foreign Language Skills in a Developing Country: The Case of Turkey”," AQR Working Papers 201311, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Nov 2013.
  2. Chou, Ming Che, 2013. "Does tourism development promote economic growth in transition countries? A panel data analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 226-232.
  3. Brida, Juan Gabriel & Pereyra, Juan Sebastián & Such, María Jesús & Pulina, Manuela, 2011. "Causalidad entre turismo y crecimiento económico de largo plazo: una revisión crítica de la literatura econométrica
    [Causality between tourism and long-term economic growth: a critical review o
    ," MPRA Paper 37332, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
  4. Davoud Mahmoudinia & Ehsan Salimi Soderjani & Farshid Pourshahabi, 2011. "Economic Growth, Tourism Receipts and Exchange Rate in MENA zone: Using Panel Causality Technique," Iranian Economic Review, Economics faculty of Tehran university, vol. 16(2), pages 129-146, spring.
  5. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Dragouni, Mina & Filis, George, 2013. "Time-Varying Interdependencies of Tourism and Economic Growth: Evidence from European Countries," MPRA Paper 48715, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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