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Integrating the Empirical Tests of the Natural Rate Hypothesis: A Meta-Regression Analysis

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  • T. D. Stanley

Abstract

A meta-analysis of thirty-four restriction tests from nine studies of the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis (NRU) finds the statistical trace of a false empirical hypothesis. A theme of bias and misspecification among those studies that tend to be more supportive of NRU emerges. When combined with a separate meta-analysis of NRU's falsifying hypothesis, unemployment 'hysteresis' ( Stanley 2004a), the natural rate hypothesis may be regarded as empirically 'falsified' ( Popper 1959). Monte Carlo simulations validate the meta-regression methods used here to integrate different restriction tests and to identify their limitations. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd..

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Kyklos.

Volume (Year): 58 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 611-634

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Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:58:y:2005:i:4:p:611-634

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Cited by:
  1. Bruns, Stephan B. & Gross, Christian & Stern, David I., 2013. "Is There Really Granger Causality Between Energy Use and Output?," FCN Working Papers 11/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  2. Stanley, T.D. & Doucouliagos, Chris & Jarrell, Stephen B., 2008. "Meta-regression analysis as the socio-economics of economics research," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 276-292, February.
  3. Germà Bel & Xavier Fageda, 2009. "Factors explaining local privatization: a meta-regression analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 105-119, April.
  4. Hristos Doucouliagos & T.D. Stanley, 2008. "Theory Competition and Selectivity: Are All Economic Facts Greatly Exaggerated?," Economics Series 2008_06, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  5. Tomáš Havránek, 2010. "Rose effect and the euro: is the magic gone?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 146(2), pages 241-261, June.
  6. Stephan B. Bruns, 2013. "Identifying Genuine Effects in Observational Research by Means of Meta-Regressions," Jena Economic Research Papers 2013-040, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
  7. Prasad Bhattacharya & Dimitrios D. Thomakos, 2006. "Trade, Openness and Domestic Conflict: An Empirical Investigation for Latin America," Economics Series 2006_02, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  8. T. D. Stanley, 2008. "Meta-Regression Methods for Detecting and Estimating Empirical Effects in the Presence of Publication Selection," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(1), pages 103-127, 02.
  9. Su Wu, 2006. "The Wallis Report and Implications of Bank Mergers for Efficiencies," Economics Series 2006_12, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  10. Tomáš Havránek, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone," Working Papers IES 2009/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2009.

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