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Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone

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Author Info
Tomáš Havránek () (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic)

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Abstract

This paper presents an updated meta-analysis of the effect of currency unions on trade, focusing on the Euro area. Using meta-regression methods such as funnel asymmetry test, evidence for strong publication bias is found. The estimated underlying effect for non-Euro studies reaches about 50%. However, the Euro's trade promoting effect corrected for publication bias is insignificant. The Rose effect literature shows signs of the economics research cycle: reported t-statistic is a quadratic function of publication year. Explanatory meta-regression (robust fixed effects and random effects) suggests that some authors produce predictable results. Interestingly, proxies for authors' IT skills were also found significant.

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File URL: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/default/file/download/id/11203
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies in its series Working Papers IES with number 2009/20.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2009
Date of revision: Aug 2009
Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2009_20

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Related research
Keywords: Rose effect; Trade; Currency union; Euro; Meta-analysis; Publication bias;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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References listed on IDEAS
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