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Zooming Out: The Trade Effect of the Euro in Historical Perspective

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Author Info
Helge Berger ()
Volker Nitsch ()

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Abstract

In 1999, eleven European countries formed the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU); they abandoned their national currencies and adopted a new common currency, the euro. Several recent papers argue that the introduction of the euro has led (by itself) to a sizable and statistically significant increase in trade between the member countries of EMU. In this paper, we put the trade effect of the euro in historical perspective. We argue that the creation of the EMU was a continuation (or culmination) of a series of previous policy changes that have led over the last five decades to greater economic integration among the countries that now constitute EMU. Using a data set that includes 22 industrial countries from 1948 to 2003, we find strong evidence of a gradual increase in trade intensity between European countries. Once we control for this trend in trade integration, the euro’s impact on trade disappears. Moreover, a significant part of the trend in European trade integration is explained by measurable policy changes.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 1435.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1435

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Related research
Keywords: monetary union; currency; euro; trade; European integration;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Sergio Nardis, 2003. "Currency unions and trade: The special case of EMU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 139(4), pages 625-649, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. José De Sousa & Julie Lochard, 2004. "The currency union effect on trade and the FDI channel," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques j04111, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
  4. Richard Baldwin & Frauke Skudelny & Daria Taglioni, 2005. "Trade effects of the euro - evidence from sectoral data," Working Paper Series 446, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo OrdoÒez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ben-David, Dan, 1993. "Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 653-79, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Nitsch, Volker, 2005. "Currency union entries and trade," Discussion Papers 2005/9, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Hamid Faruqee, 2004. "Measuring the Trade Effects of EMU," IMF Working Papers 04/154, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. David Barr & Francis Breedon & David Miles, 2003. "Life on the outside: economic conditions and prospects outside euroland," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 573-613, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Maurice J.G. Bun & Franc J.G.M. Klaassen, 2002. "Has the Euro increased Trade?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-108/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  11. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Maurice J. G. Bun & Franc J. G. M. Klaassen, 2007. "The Euro Effect on Trade is not as Large as Commonly Thought," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(4), pages 473-496, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "Fixed Exchange Rates and Trade," NBER Working Papers 10696, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sergio de Nardis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2008. "The Euro's Effects on Trade in a Dynamic Setting," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 5(1), pages 73-85, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Fritz Breuss, 2006. "Why Does Austria's Economy Grow Faster than Germany's?," WIFO Working Papers 280, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  3. Francesco Paolo Mongelli & Juan Luis Vega, 2006. "What effects is EMU having on the euro area and its member countries? An overview," Working Paper Series 599, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Richard Baldwin & Daria Taglioni, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," NBER Working Papers 12516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli, 2006. "Explaining the Euro's Effect on Trade? Interest Rates in an Augmented Gravity Equation," HEI Working Papers 10-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies. [Downloadable!]
  6. Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli & Laurent L. Pauwels, 2006. "Is There a Euro Effect on Trade? An Application of End-of-Sample Structural Break Tests for Panel Data," HEI Working Papers 04-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Apr 2006. [Downloadable!]
  7. Sergio de Nardis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2007. "The single currency’s effects on Eurozone sectoral trade: winners and losers?," ISAE Working Papers 88, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Christine Dwane & Philip R. Lane & Tara McIndoe, 2007. "Currency Unions and Irish External Trade," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp189, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ansgar Belke & Julia Spies, 2008. "Enlarging the EMU to the east: what effects on trade?," Empirica, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 369-389, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Matthias Helble, 2007. "Border Effect Estimates for France and Germany Combining International Trade and Intranational Transport Flows," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 433-463, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Felix Chan Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli Laurent L. Pauwels, 2006. "Stability Tests for Heterogeneous Panel Data," HEI Working Papers 24-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Dec 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Rolf J. Langhammer & Rainer Schweickert, 2006. "EU Integration and its Implications for Asian Economies – What we Know and What Not," Kiel Working Papers 1264, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  13. Tomáš Havránek, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone," Working Papers IES 2009/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2009. [Downloadable!]
  14. Jürgen Bitzer & Ingo Geishecker, 2005. "What Drives Trade-related R&D Spillovers? Decomposing Knowledge- diffusing Trade Flows," International Trade 0512010, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "The Real Effects of EMU," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp115, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Herwartz, Helmut & Weber, Henning, 2008. "When, how fast and by how much do trade costs change in the euro area?," Economics Working Papers 2008,17, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Artis, Michael J, 2006. "What Do We Now Know About Currency Unions?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5677, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Gianluca Cafiso, 2008. "The euro's influence upon trade - Rose effect versus border effect," Working Paper Series 941, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  19. Gianmarco Ottaviano & Daria Taglioni & Filippo di Mauro, 2007. "Deeper, wider and more competitive? Monetary integration, eastern enlargement and competitiveness in the European Union," Working Paper Series 847, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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