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Zooming Out: The Trade Effect of the Euro in Historical Perspective

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  • Helge Berger
  • Volker Nitsch

Abstract

In 1999, eleven European countries formed the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU); they abandoned their national currencies and adopted a new common currency, the euro. Several recent papers argue that the introduction of the euro has led (by itself) to a sizable and statistically significant increase in trade between the member countries of EMU. In this paper, we put the trade effect of the euro in historical perspective. We argue that the creation of the EMU was a continuation (or culmination) of a series of previous policy changes that have led over the last five decades to greater economic integration among the countries that now constitute EMU. Using a data set that includes 22 industrial countries from 1948 to 2003, we find strong evidence of a gradual increase in trade intensity between European countries. Once we control for this trend in trade integration, the euro’s impact on trade disappears. Moreover, a significant part of the trend in European trade integration is explained by measurable policy changes.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1435.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1435

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Keywords: monetary union; currency; euro; trade; European integration;

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References

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  1. Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Does a Currency Union Affect Trade? The Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Sergio Nardis, 2003. "Currency unions and trade: The special case of EMU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 139(4), pages 625-649, September.
  3. Maurice J.G. Bun & Franc J.G.M. Klaassen, 2002. "Has the Euro increased Trade?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-108/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  4. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo OrdoÒez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356, October.
  5. Nitsch, Volker & Berger, Helge, 2008. "Zooming Out: The Trade Effect of the Euro in Historical Perspective," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute of Economics (VWL) 34447, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute of Economics (VWL).
  6. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2006. "Fixed exchange rates and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 359-383, December.
  7. Hamid Faruqee, 2004. "Measuring the Trade Effects of EMU," IMF Working Papers 04/154, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Maurice J.G. Bun & Franc J.G.M. Klaassen, 2002. "Has the Euro increased Trade?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-108/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  9. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October.
  10. Sergio Nardis, 2004. "Currency unions and trade: The special case of EMU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 625-649, September.
  11. Nitsch, Volker, 2005. "Currency Union Entries and Trade," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute of Economics (VWL) 34835, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute of Economics (VWL).
  12. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
  13. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
  14. José De Sousa & Julie Lochard, 2004. "The currency union effect on trade and the FDI channel," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques j04111, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
  15. Richard Baldwin & Frauke Skudelny & Daria Taglioni, 2005. "Trade effects of the euro - evidence from sectoral data," Working Paper Series 446, European Central Bank.
  16. Ben-David, Dan, 1993. "Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 653-79, August.
  17. David Barr & Francis Breedon & David Miles, 2003. "Life on the outside: economic conditions and prospects outside euroland," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 573-613, October.
  18. Francesco Paolo Mongelli & Ettore Dorrucci & Itai Agur, 2005. "What does European institutional integration tell us about trade integration?," Occasional Paper Series 40, European Central Bank.
  19. Maurice J. G. Bun & Franc J. G. M. Klaassen, 2007. "The Euro Effect on Trade is not as Large as Commonly Thought," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(4), pages 473-496, 08.
  20. Flam, Harry & Nordström, Håkan, 2006. "Trade Volume Effects of the Euro: Aggregate and Sector Estimates," Seminar Papers 746, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
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  1. The Euro at Ten: Why Do Effects on Trade Among Members Fall Short of Historical Estimates in Smaller Monetary Unions?
    by jfrankel in Jeff Frankels Weblog on 2008-12-25 05:14:34
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