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The Single Currency's Effects on Eurozone Sectoral Trade: Winners and Losers?

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Author Info
Vicarelli, Claudio
De Santis, Roberta
De Nardis, Sergio

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Abstract

In this paper we study the effect of the single currency across industries for euro area members. This analysis may help to shed light on the main factors influencing the euro effect on trade flows. We intend to verify whether these factors are specific to individual sectors and/or countries or common to the entire euro area. We use a dynamic specification of an augmented gravity equation. Following the most recent econometric literature, we apply the ?System GMM? dynamic panel data estimator of Blundell and Bond to avoid inconsistency and biases in the estimates, and introduce controls for heterogeneity. Aggregate sector results average out country-level behaviours that, on their turn, are affected by different (unobserved) responses of firms, endowed with diverse production costs, to the enhancing and dampening impacts due to the euro. Due to this reason, the cancelling out at aggregate level of heterogenous behaviours induces an aggregation bias. So it is not surprising that when moving from sector to sector/country analysis the picture becomes much more variegated, with the emergence of a whole range of winners and lossers among industries in the different nation. Our empirical results are in line with theoretical framework we assumed as reference that considers the possibility of both stimulative and dampening effects coming from trade integration and points out the fact that sector exports impacts are the aggregation results of firm-level heterogenous behaviours.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its journal Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal.

Volume (Year): 2 (2008)
Issue (Month): 17 ()
Pages: 1-34
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:7330

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Related research
Keywords: International trade; currency unions; gravity models; dynamic panel data; Blundell-Bond estimates;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Sergio de Nardis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2008. "The Euro's Effects on Trade in a Dynamic Setting," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 5(1), pages 73-85, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Flam, Harry & Nordström, Håkan, 2006. "Euro Effects on the Intensive and Extensive Margins of Trade," Seminar Papers 750, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo OrdoÒez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Luca De Benedictis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2005. "Hub-and-Spoke or else? Free trade agreements in the 'enlarged' European Union," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 2(2), pages 245-260, December. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Ritschl, Albrecht & Wolf, Nikolaus, 2003. "Endogeneity of Currency Areas and Trade Blocs: Evidence from the Inter-war Period," CEPR Discussion Papers 4112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Andrew K. Rose & T. D. Stanley, 2005. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade *," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(3), pages 347-365, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Does a currency union affect trade? the time series evidence," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2001-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2: An Introduction to "Difference" and "System" GMM in Stata," Working Papers 103, Center for Global Development. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Hamid Faruqee, 2004. "Measuring the Trade Effects of EMU," IMF Working Papers 04/154, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. Luca De Benedictis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2004. "Trade Potentials In Gravity Panel Data Models," ISAE Working Papers 44, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Harry Flam & Hakan Nordström, 2006. "Euro Effects on the Intensive and Extensive Margins of Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  17. David Barr & Francis Breedon & David Miles, 2003. "Life on the outside: economic conditions and prospects outside euroland," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 573-613, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Helge Berger & Volker Nitsch, 2005. "Zooming Out: The Trade Effect of the Euro in Historical Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Maurice J.G. Bun & Franc J.G.M. Klaassen, 2002. "Has the Euro increased Trade?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-108/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  20. Marc J. Melitz & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, 2005. "Market Size, Trade, and Productivity," NBER Working Papers 11393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2005. "Zooming Out: The Trade Effect of the EURO in Historical Perspective," Discussion Papers 2005/5, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics. [Downloadable!]
  23. Maurice J. G. Bun & Franc J. G. M. Klaassen, 2007. "The Euro Effect on Trade is not as Large as Commonly Thought," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(4), pages 473-496, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sergio de Nardis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2008. "The Euro's Effects on Trade in a Dynamic Setting," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 5(1), pages 73-85, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Sergio de Nardis & Carmine Pappalardo & Claudio Vicarelli, 2008. "The Euro adoption’s impact on extensive and intensive margins of trade: the Italian case," ISAE Working Papers 101, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
  3. Tomáš Havránek, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone," Working Papers IES 2009/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2009. [Downloadable!]
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