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Currency Union Entries and Trade

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  • Nitsch, Volker

Abstract

Recent research suggests that adopting a common currency increases bilateral trade. In this paper, I explore experiences of currency union entry in the post-war period and find no effect on trade. Previous results derived from a large panel data set (covering more than 200 countries from 1948 through 1997) appear to depend crucially on the assumption of symmetry between currency union exits and entries: While countries leaving a currency union experience significant declines in trade, currency union entry appears to have no measurable effect on trade. Also, in a detailed analysis of the enlargement of the CFA franc zone, I find no consistent results on changes in the pattern of trade.
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Suggested Citation

  • Nitsch, Volker, 2005. "Currency Union Entries and Trade," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 34835, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    • Handle: RePEc:dar:wpaper:34835
    Note: for complete metadata visit http://tubiblio.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/34835/
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    1. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo Ordoñez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU [‘A theoretical foundation for the gravity equation’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356.
    2. Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2008. "Zooming out: The trade effect of the euro in historical perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1244-1260, December.
    3. Nitsch, Volker, 2004. "Comparing Apples and Oranges: The Trade Effect of Multilateral Currency Unions," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 34837, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    4. Mr. Michel Galy & Mr. Michael T. Hadjimichael, 1997. "The CFA Franc Zone and the EMU," IMF Working Papers 1997/156, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 434-448.
    6. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 08-45.
    7. Thom, Rodney & Walsh, Brendan, 2002. "The effect of a currency union on trade: Lessons from the Irish experience," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1111-1123, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Helmut Bester, 2009. "Externalities, communication and the allocation of decision rights," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 41(2), pages 269-296, November.
    2. Campbell, Douglas L., 2011. "Estimating the impact of currency unions on trade using a dynamic gravity framework," MPRA Paper 35531, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Campbell, Douglas L. & Chentsov, Aleksandr, 2017. "Breaking Badly: The Currency Union Effect on Trade," MPRA Paper 79973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Bitzer, Jurgen & Geishecker, Ingo, 2006. "What drives trade-related R&D spillovers? Decomposing knowledge-diffusing trade flows," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 52-57, October.
    5. Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2008. "Zooming out: The trade effect of the euro in historical perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1244-1260, December.
    6. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli, 2006. "Explaining the Euro's Effect on Trade? Interest Rates in an Augmented Gravity Equation," IHEID Working Papers 10-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    7. Christos Koulovatianos & Carsten Schröder & Ulrich Schmidt, 2005. "Non-Market Time and Household Well-Being," Vienna Economics Papers vie0507, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    8. Wolf, Nikolaus, 2007. "Endowments vs. market potential: What explains the relocation of industry after the Polish reunification in 1918?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 22-42, January.
    9. Abban, Stanley & Ofori-Abebrese, Grace, 2019. "The Prospect Of ECOWAS Currency Union On Intra-Regional Trade," MPRA Paper 102226, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Richard Pomfret, 2005. "Sequencing Trade and Monetary Integration," Others 0502004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Pomfret, Richard, 2005. "Sequencing trade and monetary integration: issues and application to Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 105-124, February.
    12. Douglas L. Campbell, 2013. "Estimating the Impact of Currency Unions on Trade: Solving the Glick and Rose Puzzle," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(10), pages 1278-1293, October.
    13. Campbell, Douglas L. & Chentsov, Aleksandr, 2023. "Breaking badly: The currency union effect on trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    14. Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli & Laurent L. Pauwels, 2006. "Is There a Euro Effect on Trade? An Application of End-of-Sample Structural Break Tests for Panel Data," IHEID Working Papers 04-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Apr 2006.
    15. Mohammed Ahmed, Abdullahi, 2019. "China’s Bilateral Currency Swap Agreement: Strategic Move to Foster Political and Financial Hegemony," MPRA Paper 109879, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Oct 2019.
    16. Campbell, Douglas L., 2011. "Estimating the impact of currency unions on trade using a dynamic gravity framework," MPRA Paper 35531, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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