Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Estimating the Impact of Currency Unions on Trade Using a Dynamic Gravity Framework

Contents:

Author Info

  • Douglas Campbell

    (Department of Economics, University of California Davis)

Abstract

Does leaving a currency union reduce international trade? This paper reexamines time series estimates of currency unions on trade from a historical perspective using a dynamic gravity equation and by conducting in-depth case studies of currency union breakups. The early large estimates are sensitive to dynamic specifications, and were driven by omitted variables, as many breakups were caused by warfare, communist takeovers, coup d'etats and other major geopolitical events. The methodology has general applicability for the use of gravity equations in policy analysis, and yields an imprecise point estimate of currency unions on trade close to one percent.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://wp.econ.ucdavis.edu/12-1.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 500 Can't connect to wp.econ.ucdavis.edu:80 (10060). If this is indeed the case, please notify (Scott Dyer)
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of California, Davis, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 121.

as in new window
Length: 0
Date of creation: 26 Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:12-1

Contact details of provider:
Postal: One Shields Ave., Davis, CA 95616-8578
Phone: (530) 752-0741
Fax: (530) 752-9382
Email:
Web page: http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Currency Unions; Trade; Dynamic Gravity; Decolonization;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  2. Helge Berger & Volker Nitsch, 2005. "Zooming Out: The Trade Effect of the Euro in Historical Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 1435, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Manuel R. Agosin & Roberto Alvarez & Claudio Bravo-Ortega, 2011. "Determinants of Export Diversificationaround the World: 1962 - 2000," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 605, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Katayama, Hajime & Melatos, Mark, 2011. "The nonlinear impact of currency unions on bilateral trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 94-96, July.
  5. Dorn, Sabrina & Egger, Peter, 2012. "On the Distribution of Exchange Rate Regime Treatment Effects on International Trade," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62054, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  6. Campbell, Douglas L., 2010. "History, culture, and trade: a dynamic gravity approach," MPRA Paper 24014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. repec:cdl:ciders:182 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Nikolaus Wolf & Albrecht O. Ritschl, 2011. "Endogeneity of Currency Areas and Trade Blocs: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 291-312, 05.
  9. Bergin, Paul R. & Lin, Ching-Yi, 2012. "The dynamic effects of a currency union on trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 191-204.
  10. Lopez-Cordova, J. Ernesto & Meissner, Chris, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt1b04r034, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  11. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D. & Nicholas Horsewood, 2006. "Effects of Regional Trade Agreements Using a Static and Dynamic Gravity Equation," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 149, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
  12. Richard Baldwin & Daria Taglioni, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," NBER Working Papers 12516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Maurice J. G. Bun & Franc J. G. M. Klaassen, 2007. "The Euro Effect on Trade is not as Large as Commonly Thought," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(4), pages 473-496, 08.
  14. Mahvash Saeed Qureshi & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2010. "The Empirics of Exchange Rate Regimes and Trade," IMF Working Papers 10/48, International Monetary Fund.
  15. María Pía Olivero & Yoto V. Yotov, 2012. "Dynamic gravity: endogenous country size and asset accumulation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(1), pages 64-92, February.
  16. R Blundell & Steven Bond, . "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model," Economics Papers W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  17. Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Salvador Gil-Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & José Antonio Martínez-Serrano, 2011. "The impact of the euro on firm export behaviour: does firm size matter?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(2), pages 355-374, April.
  18. Thom, Rodney & Walsh, Brendan, 2002. "The effect of a currency union on trade: Lessons from the Irish experience," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1111-1123, June.
  19. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 1993. "Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262570971, December.
  20. Havranek, Tomas, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: Is the Magic Gone?," MPRA Paper 18479, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Nov 2009.
  21. Harry Kelejian & George S. Tavlas & Pavlos Petroulas, 2011. "In the neighbourhood: the trade effects of the euro in a spatial framework," Working Papers 136, Bank of Greece.
  22. Combes, Pierre-Philippe & Lafourcade, Miren & Mayer, Thierry, 2005. "The trade-creating effects of business and social networks: evidence from France," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 1-29, May.
  23. Huigang Chen & Alin Mirestean & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2011. "Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with An Application to a Trade Gravity Model," IMF Working Papers 11/230, International Monetary Fund.
  24. Manuel Agosin & Roberto Álvarez & Claudio Bravo-Ortega & Esteban Puentes, 2010. "Determinants of exports diversifications around the world: 1962 - 2000," Working Papers wp309, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
  25. Mahvash Saeed Qureshi & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2011. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Trade: Is Africa Different?," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Working Paper W, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  26. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1707-21, September.
  27. Krugman, Paul, 2008. "Increasing returns," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2008-3, Nobel Prize Committee.
  28. Tomáš Havránek, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone," Working Papers IES 2009/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2009.
  29. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
  30. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
  31. Nitsch, Volker, 2005. "Currency union entries and trade," Discussion Papers 2005/9, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  32. repec:cge:warwcg:11 is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Cecilio R. Tamarit Escalona & Estrella Gómez, 2011. "The euro effect on trade: evidence in gravity equations using panel cointegration techniques," Working Papers. Serie EC 2011-07, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Currency unions and trade
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2012-03-21 13:58:00

Lists

This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
  1. Economic Logic blog

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:12-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Scott Dyer).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.