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The Dynamic Effects of Currency Union on Trade

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  • Paul Bergin
  • Ching-Yi Lin

Abstract

A currency union's ability to increase international trade is one of the most debated questions in international macroeconomics. This paper studies the dynamics of these trade effects. First, an empirical study of the European Monetary Union finds that the extensive margin of trade (entry of new firms or goods) responds several years ahead of overall trade volume. This implies that the intensive margin (previously traded goods) falls in the run-up to EMU. The paper's theoretical contribution is to study the announcement of a future monetary union as a news shock to trade costs in the context of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium trade model. Early entry of new firms in anticipation is explainable as a rational forward-looking response under certain conditions, where essential elements include sunk costs of exporting and heterogeneity among firms of a type known before entry. The findings help identify which types of trading frictions are reduced by a currency union. The important role of expectations also indicates that continued gains from EMU depend upon long-term credibility of the union.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16259.

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Date of creation: Aug 2010
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Publication status: published as Bergin, Paul R. & Lin, Ching-Yi, 2012. "The dynamic effects of a currency union on trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 191-204.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16259

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Moser, Christoph & Rose, Andrew K., 2014. "Who benefits from regional trade agreements? The view from the stock market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 31-47.
  2. Campbell, Douglas L., 2013. "Relative Prices, Hysteresis, and the Decline of American Manufacturing," MPRA Paper 51723, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Paul Bergin & Ling Feng & Ching-Yi Lin, 2014. "Financial Frictions and Firm Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 20099, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Campbell, Douglas L., 2011. "Estimating the impact of currency unions on trade using a dynamic gravity framework," MPRA Paper 35531, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Kemal Türkcan, 2014. "Investigating the Role of Extensive Margin, Intensive Margin, Price and Quantity Components on Turkey’s Export Growth during 1998-2011," Working Papers 2014/2, Turkish Economic Association.
  6. Cavallari, Lilia & D'Addona, Stefano, 2013. "Trade margins and exchange rate regimes: new evidence from a panel VAR," MPRA Paper 51585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Mario Larch , & Wolfgang Lechthaler, 2011. "Whom to Send to Doha? The Shortsighted Ones!," Kiel Working Papers 1695, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  8. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien & Poutineau, Jean-Christophe, 2012. "The effect of a common currency on the volatility of the extensive margin of trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1156-1179.
  9. Florian Mölders, 2012. "On the Path to Trade Liberalization: Political Regimes in International Trade Negotiations," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1245, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  10. Türkcan, Kemal, 2014. "Exports Margins in Austria’s Export Growth," MPRA Paper 53085, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Douglas L. Campbell, 2013. "Estimating the Impact of Currency Unions on Trade: Solving the Glick and Rose Puzzle," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(10), pages 1278-1293, October.

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