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The single currency’s effects on Eurozone sectoral trade: winners and losers?

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Author Info

  • Sergio de Nardis

    (ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses)

  • Roberta De Santis

    (ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses)

  • Claudio Vicarelli

    (ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses)

Abstract

In this paper we study the effect of the single currency across industries for Euro Area members. This analysis may help to shed light on the main factors influencing the euro effect on trade flows. We intend to verify whether these factors are specific to individual sectors and/or countries or common to the entire euro area We use a dynamic specification of an augmented gravity equation. Following the most recent econometric literature, we apply a “System GMM” dynamic panel data estimator (Blundell and Bond, 1998) to avoid inconsistency and biases in the estimates, and introduce controls for heterogeneity . Our preliminary results indicate some heterogeneity at country level. Despite statistically pro-trade effects in the majority of the EMU members, at sectoral level there are some countries in which the impact of the euro has been negative. The pro trade effects are mainly concentrated in scale intensive industries. Industrial specialization and location of these industries, together with other factors (i.e. differences in factor endowments, product regulations across countries), may have determined “the winners and the losers” in the monetary integration process. These preliminary findings are in line with those of the few other studies on this issue. In particular, this recent literature seems consistent with Baldwin’s (2006) “new good” hypothesis. However, in our estimates the magnitude of these effects are lower, probably because of our empirical strategy. Moreover, the sector/country analysis points out that other specific factors have been in place in shaping differently the euro effect on trade.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY) in its series ISAE Working Papers with number 88.

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Length: pages 31
Date of creation: Dec 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:isa:wpaper:88

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Keywords: International Trade; Currency Unions; Gravity models; Dynamic Panel Data Models; Bludell-Bond Estimates;

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References

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  1. Luca De Benedictis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2005. "Hub-and-Spoke or else? Free trade agreements in the 'enlarged' European Union," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 2(2), pages 245-260, December.
  2. Sergio de Nardis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2007. "The Euro's Effect on Trade on a Dynamic Setting," ISAE Working Papers 80, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  3. Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," NBER Working Papers 7432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  11. Harry Flam & Hakan Nordström, 2006. "Euro Effects on the Intensive and Extensive Margins of Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 1881, CESifo Group Munich.
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  14. Luca De Benedictis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2004. "Trade Potentials In Gravity Panel Data Models," ISAE Working Papers 44, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
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  16. Flam, Harry & Nordström, Håkan, 2006. "Trade Volume Effects of the Euro: Aggregate and Sector Estimates," Seminar Papers 746, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  17. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Roberta De Santis, 2012. "Impact of Environmental Regulations on Trade in the Main EU Countries: Conflict or Synergy?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(7), pages 799-815, 07.
  2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Christophe Rault, 2011. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Volatility and International Financial Integration: A Dynamic GMM Panel Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 3645, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Tomáš Havránek, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone," Working Papers IES 2009/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2009.
  4. Sergio de Nardis & Carmine Pappalardo & Claudio Vicarelli, 2008. "The Euro adoption’s impact on extensive and intensive margins of trade: the Italian case," ISAE Working Papers 101, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  5. Jan Zilinsky, 2009. "What Determines Borrowing Costs of EU Countries," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2009, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
  6. Tomáš Havránek, 2010. "Rose effect and the euro: is the magic gone?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 146(2), pages 241-261, June.
  7. Aleksander Aristovnik & Matevz Meze, 2010. "The Economic and Monetary Union’s Effect on (International) Trade: the Case of Slovenia Before Euro Adoption," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp982, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  8. Sergio de Nardis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2008. "The Euro's Effects on Trade in a Dynamic Setting," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 5(1), pages 73-85, June.
  9. Claudio, Vicarelli & Carmine, Pappalardo, 2012. "Euro introduction and export behaviour of Italian firms," MPRA Paper 43386, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Christodoulopoulou, Styliani, 2010. "THE Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization on the Extensive and the Intensive Margins of Trade," MPRA Paper 29169, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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