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The Single Currency's Effects on Eurozone Sectoral Trade: Winners and Losers?

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  • Vicarelli, Claudio
  • De Santis, Roberta
  • De Nardis, Sergio

Abstract

In this paper we study the effect of the single currency across industries for euro area members. This analysis may help to shed light on the main factors influencing the euro effect on trade flows. We intend to verify whether these factors are specific to individual sectors and/or countries or common to the entire euro area. We use a dynamic specification of an augmented gravity equation. Following the most recent econometric literature, we apply a ?System GMM? dynamic panel data estimator (Blundell and Bond, 1998) to avoid inconsistency and biases in the estimates, and introduce controls for heterogeneity. Our preliminary results indicate some heterogeneity at country level. Despite statistically pro-trade effects in the majority of the EMU members, at sectoral level there are some countries in which the impact of the euro has been negative. The pro-trade effects are mainly concentrated in scale intensive industries. Industrial specialization and location of these industries, together with other factors (i.e. differences in factor endowments, product regulations across countries), may have determined ?the winners and the losers? in the monetary integration process. These preliminary findings are in line with those of the few other studies on this issue. In particular, this recent literature seems consistent with Baldwin?s (2006) ?new good? hypothesis. However, in our estimates the magnitude of these effects are lower, probably because of our empirical strategy. Moreover, the sector/country analysis points out that other specific factors have been in place in shaping differently the euro effect on trade. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Economics Discussion Papers with number 2008-1.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:6866

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Keywords: International trade; currency unions; gravity models; dynamic panel data; Blundell-Bond estimates;

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References

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  1. Rose, Andrew, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," Seminar Papers 678, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  2. Maurice J. G. Bun & Franc J. G. M. Klaassen, 2007. "The Euro Effect on Trade is not as Large as Commonly Thought," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(4), pages 473-496, 08.
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  11. Luca De Benedictis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2005. "Hub-and-Spoke or else? Free trade agreements in the 'enlarged' European Union," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 2(2), pages 245-260, December.
  12. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
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  15. Sergio de Nardis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2007. "The Euro's Effect on Trade on a Dynamic Setting," ISAE Working Papers 80, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  16. Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2008. "Zooming out: The trade effect of the euro in historical perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1244-1260, December.
  17. Hamid Faruqee, 2004. "Measuring the Trade Effects of EMU," IMF Working Papers 04/154, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jan Zilinsky, 2009. "What Determines Borrowing Costs of EU Countries," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2009, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
  2. Aleksander Aristovnik & Matevz Meze, 2010. "The Economic and Monetary Union’s Effect on (International) Trade: the Case of Slovenia Before Euro Adoption," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp982, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  3. Roberta De Santis, 2012. "Impact of Environmental Regulations on Trade in the Main EU Countries: Conflict or Synergy?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(7), pages 799-815, 07.
  4. Sergio de Nardis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2007. "The Euro's Effect on Trade on a Dynamic Setting," ISAE Working Papers 80, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  5. Christodoulopoulou, Styliani, 2010. "THE Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization on the Extensive and the Intensive Margins of Trade," MPRA Paper 29169, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Sergio de Nardis & Carmine Pappalardo & Claudio Vicarelli, 2008. "The Euro adoption’s impact on extensive and intensive margins of trade: the Italian case," ISAE Working Papers 101, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  7. Claudio, Vicarelli & Carmine, Pappalardo, 2012. "Euro introduction and export behaviour of Italian firms," MPRA Paper 43386, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Christophe Rault, 2011. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Volatility and International Financial Integration: A Dynamic GMM Panel Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 3645, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Tomáš Havránek, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone," Working Papers IES 2009/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2009.
  10. Havranek, Tomas, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: Is the Magic Gone?," MPRA Paper 18479, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Nov 2009.

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