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Does a Currency Union Affect Trade? The Time Series Evidence

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  • Glick, Reuven
  • Rose, Andrew K

Abstract

Does leaving a currency union reduce international trade? We answer this question using a large annual panel data set covering over 230 countries from 1948-97. During this sample over one hundred pairs of countries had currency union dissolutions; they experienced economically and statistically significant declines in bilateral trade, after accounting for other factors. Assuming symmetry, we estimate that a pair of countries that starts to use a common currency experiences a doubling in bilateral trade.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2891.

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Date of creation: Jul 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2891

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Keywords: bilateral; common currency; country; effects; empirical; fixed; gravity; international; monetary; random; union; within;

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  1. Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "EMU: Why and How It Might Happen," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 3-21, Fall.
  2. Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: the effect is large," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 449-461, October.
  3. Martin Feldstein, 1997. "The Political Economy of the European Economic and Monetary Union: Political Sources of an Economic Liability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 23-42, Fall.
  4. Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," NBER Working Papers 7432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Christopher M. Meissner, 2003. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 344-353, March.
  6. Rodney Thom & Brendan Walsh, 2001. "The Effect of a Common Currency on Trade - Ireland before and after the Sterling Link," Working Papers 200110, School Of Economics, University College Dublin.
  7. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October.
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