Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

In the neighbourhood: the trade effects of the euro in a spatial framework

Contents:

Author Info

  • Harry Kelejian

    (University of Maryland)

  • George S. Tavlas

    ()
    (Bank of Greece)

  • Pavlos Petroulas

    ()
    (Bank of Greece)

Abstract

Trade is spatial in nature. However, when specifying trade regressions, spatial issues are typically not accounted for in a satisfactory way. We specify a trade model which relates to the effects that the introduction of the euro had on exports for the euro countries. Our model contains country pair fixed effects and error terms which are spatially and time autocorrelated, as well as heteroskedastic. Our spatial weighting matrix has unique characteristics. Our model also allows for endogenous regressors, and so we estimate it by an instrumental variable procedure. We find that the results of estimation are substantially affected when one accounts for statistical complications. Specifically, euro effects on exports are significantly reduced and are only "borderline" significant. Also, dummy variables measuring the effects of EU-membership on exports become insignificant. The results relating to other variables do not seem to be substantially affected. All of this suggests that, perhaps, the effects of currency unions on trade as described in the previous literature has been severely overstated.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.bankofgreece.gr/BogEkdoseis/Paper2011136.pdf
File Function: Full Text
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Greece in its series Working Papers with number 136.

as in new window
Length: 33
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:136

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.bankofgreece.gr
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Trade; EMU; Spatial Econometrics; Panel Data;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Baltagi, Badi H. & Egger, Peter & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2008. "Estimating regional trade agreement effects on FDI in an interdependent world," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 194-208, July.
  2. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman & Adam Szeidl, 2003. "Optimal Integration Strategies for the Multinational Firm," NBER Working Papers 10189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," CEPR Discussion Papers 1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
  5. Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2005. "Zooming Out: The Trade Effect of the EURO in Historical Perspective," Discussion Papers 2005/5, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  6. Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Does a currency union affect trade? the time series evidence," Working Paper Series 2001-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Baldwin, Richard & Di Nino, Virginia, 2006. "Euros and Zeros: The Common Currency Effect on Trade in New Goods," CEPR Discussion Papers 5973, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Harry Flam & Hakan Nordström, 2006. "Euro Effects on the Intensive and Extensive Margins of Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 1881, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
  10. Flam, Harry & Nordström, Håkan, 2006. "Trade Volume Effects of the Euro: Aggregate and Sector Estimates," Seminar Papers 746, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  11. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
  12. Sergio de Nardis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2007. "The Euro's Effect on Trade on a Dynamic Setting," ISAE Working Papers 80, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  13. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2004. "Why Some Firms Export," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 561-569, May.
  14. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo OrdoÒez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356, October.
  15. Matteo Bugamelli & Luigi Infante, 2003. "Sunk Costs of Exports," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 469, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  16. Stephen G. Hall & Pavlos Petroulas, 2008. "Spatial Interdependencies of FDI Locations: A Lessening of the Tyranny of Distance?," Working Papers 67, Bank of Greece.
  17. Volker Nitsch, 2002. "Honey, I Shrunk the Currency Union Effect on Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 457-474, 04.
  18. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
  19. Badi H. Baltagi & Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2005. "Estimating Models of Complex FDI: Are There Third-Country Effects?," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 73, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  20. Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1999. "A Generalized Moments Estimator for the Autoregressive Parameter in a Spatial Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 509-33, May.
  21. Baldwin, Richard E. & Skudelny, Frauke & Taglioni, Daria, 2005. "Trade effects of the euro: evidence from sectoral data," Working Paper Series 0446, European Central Bank.
  22. David Greenaway & Richard Kneller, 2007. "Firm heterogeneity, exporting and foreign direct investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(517), pages F134-F161, 02.
  23. Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2005. "A Spatial Theory of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1464-1491, December.
  24. Richard Baldwin & Virginia DiNino & Lionel Fontagn� & Roberto A. De Santis & Daria Taglioni, 2008. "Study on the Impact of the Euro on Trade and Foreign Direct Investment," European Economy - Economic Papers 321, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  25. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October.
  26. Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2004. "Estimation of simultaneous systems of spatially interrelated cross sectional equations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1-2), pages 27-50.
  27. Markusen, James R. & Venables, Anthony J., 2007. "Interacting factor endowments and trade costs: A multi-country, multi-good approach to trade theory," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 333-354, November.
  28. Maurice J. G. Bun & Franc J. G. M. Klaassen, 2007. "The Euro Effect on Trade is not as Large as Commonly Thought," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(4), pages 473-496, 08.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Douglas Campbell, 2012. "Estimating the Impact of Currency Unions on Trade Using a Dynamic Gravity Framework," Working Papers 121, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  2. Rodolfo Metulini, 2013. "Spatial gravity models for international trade: a panel analysis among OECD countries," ERSA conference papers ersa13p522, European Regional Science Association.
  3. Parent, Olivier & LeSage, James P., 2012. "Spatial dynamic panel data models with random effects," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 727-738.
  4. Kadiyali, Vrinda & Kosová, Renáta, 2013. "Inter-industry employment spillovers from tourism inflows," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 272-281.
  5. Mariam Camarero & Estrella Gómez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2012. "EMU and intra-European trade. Long-run evidence using gravity equations," ThE Papers 10/25, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
  6. Paolo Sgrignoli & Rodolfo Metulini & Stefano Schiavo & Massimo Riccaboni, 2013. "The Relation Between Global Migration and Trade Networks," Papers 1310.3716, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2013.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christina Tsochatzi).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.