The euro impact on trade. Long run evidence with structural breaks
AbstractIn this paper we present new evidence on the euro effect on trade. We use a data set containing all bilateral combinations in a panel of 26 OECD countries during the period 1967-2008. From a methodological point of view, we implement a new generation of tests that allow solving some of the problems derived from the non-stationary nature of the data. To this aim we apply panel tests that account for the presence of cross-section dependence as well as discontinuities in the non-stationary panel data. We test for cointegration between the variables using panel cointegration tests, especially the ones proposed by Banerjee and Carrióni- Silvestre (2010). We also efficiently estimate the long-run relationships using the CUP-BC and CUP-FM estimators proposed in Bai et al. (2009). We argue that, after controlling for cross-section dependence and deterministic trends and breaks in trade integration, the euro appears to generate lower trade effects than predicted in previous studies.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada. in its series ThE Papers with number 10/27.
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 25 May 2012
Date of revision:
Gravity models; trade; panel cointegration; common factors; structural breaks; cross-section dependence.;
Other versions of this item:
- Mariam Camarero & Estrella Gómez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2012. "The euro impact on trade. Long run evidence with structural breaks," Working Papers 1209, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
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