Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect

Contents:

Author Info

  • J. M. C. Santos Silva
  • Silvana Tenreyro

Abstract

We critically review the recent literature on currency unions, and discuss the methodological challenges posed by the empirical assessment of their costs and benefits. In the process, we provide evidence on the economic effects of the euro. In particular, and in contrast with estimates of the trade effect of other currency unions, we find that the impact of the euro on trade has been close to zero. After reviewing the costs and benefits, we conclude with some open questions on normative and positive aspects of the theory of currency unions, emphasizing the need for a unified welfare-based framework to weigh their costs and gains.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp0986.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Economic Performance, LSE in its series CEP Discussion Papers with number dp0986.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jun 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0986

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/series.asp?prog=CEP

Related research

Keywords: Currency union; Integration; Exchange Rage; Trade;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Haroon Mumtaz & Jean Imbs & Morten O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 03/68, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January.
  3. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo OrdoÒez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356, October.
  4. von Hagen, Jurgen & Eichengreen, Barry, 1996. "Federalism, Fiscal Restraints, and European Monetary Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 134-38, May.
  5. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2004. "Optimal monetary policy in a currency area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 293-320, July.
  6. Varadarajan V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "Time Inconsistency and Free-Riding in a Monetary Union," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1329-1356, October.
  7. Kai Christoffel & Keith Kuester & Tobias Linzert, 2009. "The Role of Labor Markets for Euro Area Monetary Policy," Kiel Working Papers 1513, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  8. Martine Carré & Fabrice Collard, 1999. "Monetary Union : A Welfare Based Approach," Working Papers 99-62, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  9. Helpman, Elhanan, 1981. "International trade in the presence of product differentiation, economies of scale and monopolistic competition : A Chamberlin-Heckscher-Ohlin approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-340, August.
  10. Chari, V.V. & Kehoe, Patrick J., 2007. "On the need for fiscal constraints in a monetary union," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2399-2408, November.
  11. Engel, Charles, 2000. "Local-currency pricing and the choice of exchange-rate regime," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(8), pages 1449-1472, August.
  12. Michael R. Pakko & Howard J. Wall, 2001. "Reconsidering the trade-creating effects of a currency union," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 37-46.
  13. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
  14. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K, 2001. "Does a Currency Union Affect Trade? The Time Series Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2891, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. P Martin & H Rey, 2000. "Financial Super-Markets: Size Matters for Asset Trade," CEP Discussion Papers dp0450, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  16. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Diba, Behzad T., 1991. "Fiscal deficits, financial integration, and a central bank for Europe," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 381-403, December.
  17. Stephen Ching & Michael B. Devereux, 2000. "Mundell Revisited: A simple approach to the Costs and Benefits of a Single Currency Area," Working Papers 092000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  18. Eswar Prasad & Tamim Bayoumi, 1996. "Currency Unions, Economic Fluctuations, and Adjustment - Some New Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 96/81, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Aizenman, Joshua, 1992. "Competitive Externalities and the Optimal Seigniorage," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(1), pages 61-71, February.
  20. Matteo Bugamelli & Fabiano Schivardi & Roberta Zizza, 2008. "The Euro and Firm Restructuring," NBER Working Papers 14454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Alesina, Alberto & Stella, Andrea, 2010. "The Politics of Monetary Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 18, pages 1001-1054 Elsevier.
  22. José de Sousa & Olivier Lamotte, 2007. "Does political disintegration lead to trade disintegration?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 15, pages 825-843, October.
  23. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2005. "Trends and cycles in the Euro Area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?," Macroeconomics 0511016, EconWPA.
  24. Tommaso Monacelli & Jordi Galí, 2005. "Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Currency Union," Working Papers 300, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  25. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 1997. "Welfare and Macroeconomic Interdependence," NBER Working Papers 6307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2005. "Zooming Out: The Trade Effect of the EURO in Historical Perspective," Discussion Papers 2005/5, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  27. Fleming, J Marcus, 1971. "On Exchange Rate Unification," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 81(323), pages 467-88, September.
  28. Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility," Working Papers 03-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  29. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," NBER Working Papers 4693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Philippe BACCHETTA & Eric VAN WINCOOP, 1999. "Does Exchange Rate Stability Increase Trade and Welfare ?," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9917, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  31. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
  32. Decressin, Jörg & Fatás, Antonio, 1994. "Regional Labour Market Dynamics in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  33. Jan Fidrmuc & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "Disintegration and Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(5), pages 811-829, November.
  34. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October.
  35. Beetsma, Roel & Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "An Analysis of the Stability and Growth Pact," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 546-71, October.
  36. Thom, Rodney & Walsh, Brendan, 2002. "The effect of a currency union on trade: Lessons from the Irish experience," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1111-1123, June.
  37. Neumeyer, P.A., 1995. "Currencies and the Allocation of Risk: The Welfare Effect of a Monetary Union," DELTA Working Papers 95-27, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  38. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," CEPR Discussion Papers 1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  39. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 1998. "Fixed vs. Floating Exchange Rates: How Price Setting Affects the Optimal Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  41. von Hagen, Jurgen, 1992. "Policy-Delegation and Fixed Exchange Rates," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(4), pages 849-70, November.
  42. Miklos Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "Volatility and Development," CEP Discussion Papers dp0706, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  43. Baldwin, Richard & Taglioni, Daria, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  44. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
  45. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "The Real Effects of European Monetary Union," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 47-66, Fall.
  46. Barry Eichengreen., 1990. "One Money for Europe? Lessons from the US Currency Union," Economics Working Papers 90-132, University of California at Berkeley.
  47. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  48. Flam, Harry & Nordström, Håkan, 2006. "Euro Effects on the Intensive and Extensive Margins of Trade," Seminar Papers 750, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  49. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(2), pages 441-487, 05.
  50. Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano, 2008. "Financial Market Integration under EMU," European Economy - Economic Papers 312, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  51. Eichengreen, Barry & Irwin, Douglas A., 1995. "Trade blocs, currency blocs and the reorientation of world trade in the 1930s," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 1-24, February.
  52. Richard E. Baldwin & Virginia Di Nino, 2006. "Euros and Zeros: The Common Currency Effect on Trade in New Goods," NBER Working Papers 12673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  53. Russell Cooper & Hubert Kempf, 2004. "Overturning Mundell: Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(2), pages 371-396.
  54. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno, 2003. "Price Stability in Open Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 743-764.
  55. Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Trognon A, 1982. "Pseudo maximum lilelihood methods : applications to poisson models," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8203, CEPREMAP.
  56. Maurice J. G. Bun & Franc J. G. M. Klaassen, 2007. "The Euro Effect on Trade is not as Large as Commonly Thought," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(4), pages 473-496, 08.
  57. Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "Fixed Exchange Rates and Trade," NBER Working Papers 10696, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  58. Santos Silva, Joao & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2005. "The Log of Gravity," CEPR Discussion Papers 5311, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  59. Ester Faia, 2007. "Financial Differences and Business Cycle Co-Movements in a Currency Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 151-185, 02.
  60. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "Can international monetary policy cooperation be counterproductive?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 199-217, May.
  61. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
  62. Maurice Obstfeld & Giovanni Peri, 1998. "Regional non-adjustment and fiscal policy," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 205-259, 04.
  63. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1984. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  64. Bayoumi, Tamim & Masson, Paul R., 1995. "Fiscal flows in the United States and Canada: Lessons for monetary union in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 253-274, February.
  65. Dixit, Avinash & Lambertini, Luisa, 2001. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and commitment versus discretion in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 977-987, May.
  66. Antoine Berthou & Lionel Fontagné, 2008. "The Euro Effects on the Firm and Product-Level Trade Margins: Evidence from France," Working Papers 2008-21, CEPII research center.
  67. Anne Sibert, 1990. "Government finance in a common currency area," Research Working Paper 90-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  68. Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2000. "Closed and Open Economy Models of Business Cycles with Marked Up and Sticky Prices," NBER Working Papers 8043, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  69. Giavazzi, Francesco & Giovannini, Alberto, 1986. "Monetary Policy Interactions under Managed Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 123, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  70. Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: the effect is large," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 449-461, October.
  71. Lieven Baele & Annalisa Ferrando & Peter Hördahl & Elizaveta Krylova & Cyril Monnet, 2004. "Measuring financial integration in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
  72. Baldwin, Richard E. & Skudelny, Frauke & Taglioni, Daria, 2005. "Trade effects of the euro: evidence from sectoral data," Working Paper Series 0446, European Central Bank.
  73. Elias Papaioannou & Richard Portes, 2008. "Costs and benefits of running an international currency," European Economy - Economic Papers 348, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  74. Saint-Paul, Gilles, 2000. "The Political Economy of Labour Market Institutions," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198293323.
  75. Gil-Pareja, Salvador & Llorca-Vivero, Rafael & Martínez-Serrano, José Antonio, 2008. "Trade effects of monetary agreements: Evidence for OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 733-755, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Felix Groba, 2011. "Determinants of Trade with Solar Energy Technology Components: Evidence on the Porter Hypothesis?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1163, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. María Pía Olivero & Yoto V. Yotov, 2012. "Dynamic gravity: endogenous country size and asset accumulation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(1), pages 64-92, February.
  3. Pedro Leao & Alfonso Palacio-Vera, 2011. "Can Portugal Escape Stagnation without Opting Out from the Eurozone?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_664, Levy Economics Institute, The.
  4. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2013. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse, Toolkit, and Cookbook," Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers 2013-02, Sciences Po Departement of Economics.
  5. Etienne Farvaque & Norimichi Matsueda, 2010. "On the Sustainability of a Monetary Union under External Shocks: a Theoretical Result and Its Application to the Gulf Countries," Discussion Paper Series 66, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Dec 2010.
  6. De Sousa, Jose, 2011. "The currency union effect on trade is decreasing over time," MPRA Paper 35448, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Bas Straathof & Paolo Calio, 2012. "Currency derivatives and the disconnection between exchange rate volatility and international trade," CPB Discussion Paper 203, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  8. Ruy Lama & Pau Rabanal, 2012. "Deciding to Enter a Monetary Union: TheRole of Trade and Financial Linkages," IMF Working Papers 12/240, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Stephan Siegel & Christian Lundblad & Campbell R. Harvey & Geert Bekaert, 2011. "The European Union, the Euro, and Equity Market Integration," 2011 Meeting Papers 468, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Marc Auboin & Michele Ruta, 2012. "The Relationship between Exchange Rates and International Trade: A Literature Review," CESifo Working Paper Series 3868, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Fisher, Paul & Ciani, Emanuele, 2014. "Dif-in-dif estimators of multiplicative treatment effects," ISER Working Paper Series 2014-14, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
  12. Alexandra Hudson & Bas Straathof, 2010. "The Declining Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(4), pages 361-372, November.
  13. Pels, 2010. "International Asset Holdings and the Euro," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp331, IIIS.
  14. Herwartz, Helmut & Weber, Henning, 2013. "The role of cross-sectional heterogeneity for magnitude and timing of the euro's trade effect," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 48-74.
  15. Marko Malovic & Malisa Djukic & Srdjan Redzepagic, 2011. "Maastricht Criteria at the Age of 18: Are They Converging, Which Party and to What End?," Book Chapters, Institute of Economic Sciences.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0986. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.