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Does a currency union affect trade? The time-series evidence

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  • Glick, Reuven
  • Rose, Andrew K.

Abstract

Does leaving a currency union reduce international trade? We answer this question using a large annual panel data set covering 217 countries from 1948 through 1997. During this sample a large number of countries left currency unions; they experienced economically and statistically significant declines in bilateral trade, after accounting for other factors. Assuming symmetry, we estimate that a pair of countries that starts to use a common currency experiences a near doubling in bilateral trade.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 46 (2002)
Issue (Month): 6 (June)
Pages: 1125-1151

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:46:y:2002:i:6:p:1125-1151

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  1. Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," NBER Working Papers 7432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October.
  3. Martin Feldstein, 1997. "The Political Economy of the European Economic and Monetary Union: Political Sources of an Economic Liability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 23-42, Fall.
  4. Christopher M. Meissner, 2003. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 344-353, March.
  5. Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: the effect is large," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 449-461, October.
  6. Rodney Thom & Brendan Walsh, 2001. "The Effect of a Common Currency on Trade - Ireland before and after the Sterling Link," Working Papers 200110, School Of Economics, University College Dublin.
  7. Wyplosz, Charles, 1997. "EMU: Why and How It Might Happen," CEPR Discussion Papers 1685, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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