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What determines bilateral trade flows?

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Author Info
Marianne Baxter
Michael Kouparitsas

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Abstract

This paper undertakes an exhaustive search for robust determinants of international trade, where "robustness" is tested using three popular empirical methods. The paper is frankly atheoretical: our goal is solely to establish statistically robust relationships. Along the way, however, we relate our results to the empirical results obtained by prior researchers and to the received theory of international trade. We find that robust variables include a measure of the scale of factor endowments; fixed exchange rates; the level of development; and current account restrictions. Variables that are robust under certain methods and sample periods include exchange rate volatility, an index of sectoral similarity, and currency union. However, the estimated coefficient on currency union is much smaller than estimates obtained by prior researchers.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-05-11.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-05-11

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Keywords: Business cycles ; Trade;

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  1. William Easterly & Ross Levine, 2002. "It's Not Factor Accumulation: Stylized Facts and Growth Models," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 164, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Bowen, Harry P & Leamer, Edward E & Sveikauskas, Leo, 1987. "Multicountry, Multifactor Tests of the Factor Abundance Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 791-809, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Debeare, Peter, 2003. "Relative Factor Abundance and Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 589-610, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey & Stein, Ernesto & Wei, Shang-jin, 1995. "Trading blocs and the Americas: The natural, the unnatural, and the super-natural," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-95, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ghosh, Sucharita & Yamarik, Steven, 2004. "Are regional trading arrangements trade creating?: An application of extreme bounds analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 369-395, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate Of The Effect Of Common Currencies On Trade And Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Lee, J.-W. & Barro, R.J., 1998. "Schooling Quality in a Cross Section of Countries," Papers 659, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
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  10. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 2000. "An Estimate of the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output," CEPR Discussion Papers 2631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong Wha, 1996. "International Measures of Schooling Years and Schooling Quality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 218-23, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Andrew Rose, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade," NBER Working Papers 10373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, . "Truth and Robustness in Cross-country Growth Regressions," Department of Economics 01-01, California Davis - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "Estimating the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output," NBER Working Papers 7857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Thursby, Jerry G & Thursby, Marie C, 1987. "Bilateral Trade Flows, the Linder Hypothesis, and Exchange Risk," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 488-95, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Shea, John, 1996. "Comovement in cities," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 169-206, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert E. Lipsey & Harry P. Bowen, 1997. "World Trade Flows, 1970-1992, with Production and Tariff Data," NBER Working Papers 5910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "Fixed Exchange Rates and Trade," NBER Working Papers 10696, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Theo Eicher & Christian Henn & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited: Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects," IMF Working Papers 08/66, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Julian Berengaut & Katrin Elborgh-Woytek, 2006. "Beauty Queens and Wallflowers--Currency Unions in the Middle East and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 06/226, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Heuchemer, Sylvia & Kleimeier, Stefanie & Sander, Harald, 2008. "The Geography of European Cross-Border Banking: The Impact of Cultural and Political Factors," Research Memoranda 008, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization. [Downloadable!]
  4. Cardamone, Paola, 2007. "A survey of the assessments of the effectiveness of Preferential Trade Agreements using gravity models," Working Papers 7282, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Tomáš Havránek, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone," Working Papers IES 2009/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2009. [Downloadable!]
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