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What determines bilateral trade flows?

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  • Marianne Baxter
  • Michael Kouparitsas

Abstract

This paper undertakes an exhaustive search for robust determinants of international trade, where "robustness" is tested using three popular empirical methods. The paper is frankly atheoretical: our goal is solely to establish statistically robust relationships. Along the way, however, we relate our results to the empirical results obtained by prior researchers and to the received theory of international trade. We find that robust variables include a measure of the scale of factor endowments; fixed exchange rates; the level of development; and current account restrictions. Variables that are robust under certain methods and sample periods include exchange rate volatility, an index of sectoral similarity, and currency union. However, the estimated coefficient on currency union is much smaller than estimates obtained by prior researchers.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-05-11.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-05-11

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Keywords: Business cycles ; Trade;

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References

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  1. Debeare, Peter, 2003. "Relative Factor Abundance and Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 589-610, June.
  2. Philippe BACCHETTA & Eric VAN WINCOOP, 1999. "Does Exchange Rate Stability Increase Trade and Welfare ?," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9917, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
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Cited by:
  1. Chris Papageorgiou & Christian Henn & Theo S. Eicher, 2008. "Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited," IMF Working Papers 08/66, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Cardamone, Paola, 2007. "A survey of the assessments of the effectiveness of Preferential Trade Agreements using gravity models," Working Papers 7282, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
  3. Resiandini, Pramesti, 2010. "Financial development and trade: evidence from the world's three largest economies," MPRA Paper 25631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Katrin Elborgh-Woytek & Julian Berengaut, 2006. "Beauty Queens and Wallflowers," IMF Working Papers 06/226, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Cipollina, Maria & Salvatici, Luca, 2007. "Reciprocal trade agreements in gravity models: a meta-analysis," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp07035, University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI.
  6. Heuchemer, Sylvia & Kleimeier, Stefanie & Sander, Harald, 2008. "The Geography of European Cross-Border Banking: The Impact of Cultural and Political Factors," Research Memorandum 008, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  7. Tomáš Havránek, 2010. "Rose effect and the euro: is the magic gone?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 146(2), pages 241-261, June.
  8. Huigang Chen & Alin Mirestean & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2011. "Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with An Application to a Trade Gravity Model," IMF Working Papers 11/230, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Tomáš Havránek, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone," Working Papers IES 2009/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2009.

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