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Exchange Rate Regimes and the Extensive Margin of Trade

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Author Info
Paul R. Bergin
Ching-Yi Lin

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Abstract

This paper finds that currency unions and direct exchange rate pegs raise trade through distinct channels. Panel data analysis of the period 1973-2000 indicates that currency unions have raised trade predominantly at the extensive margin, the entry of new firms or products. In contrast, direct pegs have worked almost entirely at the intensive margin, increased trade of existing products. A stochastic general equilibrium model is developed to understand this result, featuring price stickiness and firm entry under uncertainty. Because both regimes tend to reliably provide exchange rate stability over the horizon of a year or so, which is the horizon of price setting, they both lead to lower export prices and greater demand for exports. But because currency unions historically are more durable over a longer horizon than pegs, they encourage firms to make the longer-term investment needed to enter a new market. The model predicts that when exchange rate uncertainty is completely and permanently eliminated, all of the adjustment in trade should occur at the extensive margin.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14126.

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Date of creation: Jun 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14126

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F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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  3. Feenstra, Robert C, 1994. "New Product Varieties and the Measurement of International Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 157-77, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1996. "Taste for variety and optimum production patterns in monopolistic competition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 41-47, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Richard Baldwin & Frauke Skudelny & Daria Taglioni, 2005. "Trade effects of the euro - evidence from sectoral data," Working Paper Series 446, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Andrew B. Bernard & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2006. "Multi-Product Firms and Trade Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 12782, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Kanda Naknoi, 2005. "Real exchange rate fluctuations, endogenous tradability and exchange rate regime," International Finance 0509004, EconWPA, revised 07 Nov 2005. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2006. "Fixed exchange rates and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 359-383, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate Of The Effect Of Common Currencies On Trade And Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2005. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(3), pages 865-915, August.
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  12. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Cushman, David O., 1983. "The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 45-63, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2003. "How important is the new goods margin in international trade?," Staff Report 324, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Bergin, Paul R. & Glick, Reuven & Taylor, Alan M., 2006. "Productivity, tradability, and the long-run price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 2041-2066, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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