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The estimated effects of the euro on trade: why are they below historical effects of monetary unions among smaller countries?

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  • Jeffrey A. Frankel

Abstract

Andy Rose (2000), followed by many others, has used the gravity model of bilateral trade on a large data set to estimate the trade effects of monetary unions among small countries. The finding has been large estimates: Trade among members seems to double or triple, that is, to increase by 100-200%. After the advent of EMU in 1999, Micco, Ordoñez and Stein and others used the gravity model on a much smaller data set to estimate the effects of the euro on trade among its members. The estimates tend to be statistically significant, but far smaller in magnitude: on the order of 10-20% during the first four years. What explains the discrepancy? This paper seeks to address two questions. First, do the effects on intra-euroland trade that were estimated in the euro's first four years hold up in the second four years? The answer is yes. Second, and more complicated, what is the reason for the big discrepancy vis-à-vis other currency unions? We investigate three prominent possible explanations for the gap between 15% and 200%. First, lags. The euro is still very young. Second, size. The European countries are much bigger on average than most of those who had formed currency unions in the past. Third, endogeneity of the decision to adopt an institutional currency link. Perhaps the high correlations estimated in earlier studies were spurious, an artifact of reverse causality. Contrary to expectations, we find no evidence that any of these factors explains a substantial share of the gap, let alone all of it.

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File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/53362/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library in its series LSE Research Online Documents on Economics with number 53362.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:53362

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Tomáš Havránek, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone," Working Papers IES 2009/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2009.
  2. Laurence M. Ball, 2010. "The Performance of Alternative Monetary Regimes," NBER Working Papers 16124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Jayjit Roy, 2009. "On the Robustness of the Trade-Inducing Effects of Trade Agreements and Currency Unions," Departmental Working Papers 0906, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
  4. Mahvash Saeed Qureshi & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2010. "The Empirics of Exchange Rate Regimes and Trade," IMF Working Papers 10/48, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Alexandra Hudson & Bas Straathof, 2010. "The Declining Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(4), pages 361-372, November.
  6. Havranek, Tomas, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: Is the Magic Gone?," MPRA Paper 18479, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Nov 2009.
  7. Vladimir Popov, 2011. "To devaluate or not to devalue? How East European countries responded to the outflow of capital in 1997-99 and in 2008-09," Working Papers w0154, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  8. Martina Cecioni, 2010. "External trade and monetary policy in a currency area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 738, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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