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Geography, Trade and Currency Union

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Author Info
Mélitz, Jacques

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Abstract

This Paper reports on four basic results of tests of the standard gravity equation. First, geography can serve to reflect comparative advantage as well as transportation costs. Second, the effect of distance on bilateral trade is mostly a substitution effect between closer and more distant trade partners rather than a scale effect on total foreign trade. Third, special political relationships, such as free trade agreements, former colonial attachments, and currency union, do not produce any trade diversion in the aggregate, but increase trade with outsiders as well as among the parties to the relationship. Fourth, Rose’s surprisingly high estimate of the impact of currency union on trade stems partly from a selection bias, but even following a correction for this bias, the estimate remains high.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2987.

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Date of creation: Oct 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2987

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Related research
Keywords: bilateral trade; free trade area; geography; gravity; monetary union; trade creation; trade diversion;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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  1. Flandreau, Marc & Maurel, Mathilde, 2001. "Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe: Just Do It," CEPR Discussion Papers 3087, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Baldwin, Richard & Taglioni, Daria, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. James Yetman, 2003. "Currency Unions, Trade Flows, and Capital Flows," Working Papers 182003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Andrew Rose, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade," NBER Working Papers 10373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Sergio De Nardis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2003. "The Impact of the Euro on Trade: The (Early) Effect is Not So Large," Economics Working Papers 017, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Estimated Effects of the Euro on Trade: Why Are They Below Historical Effects of Monetary Unions Among Smaller Countries?," NBER Working Papers 14542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Richard Baldwin Virginia Di Nino, 2006. "Euros and zeros: The common currency effect on trade in new goods," HEI Working Papers heiwp21-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised 31 Oct 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Richard E. Baldwin, 2006. "The euro's trade effect," Working Paper Series 594, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Helena Marques & Hugh Metcalf, 2003. "What Determines Sectoral Trade in the Enlarged EU?," Discussion Paper Series 2003_8, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Sep 2003. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Tomáš Havránek, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone," Working Papers IES 2009/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2009. [Downloadable!]
  11. Kwanho Shin & Yunjong Wang, 2003. "Monetary Integration Ahead of Trade Integration in East Asia?," ISER Discussion Paper 0572, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University. [Downloadable!]
  12. Bastourre, Diego & Carrera, Jorge & Féliz, Mariano & Panigo, Demian, 2003. "Dollarization and real volatility," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 0311, CEPREMAP. [Downloadable!]
  13. Sergio Nardis, 2003. "Currency unions and trade: The special case of EMU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 139(4), pages 625-649, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Matthias Lutz, 2003. "Price Convergence under EMU? First Estimates," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2003 2003-08, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2002. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Working Papers 9072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Peter Backé & Christian Thimann & Olga Arratibel & Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez & Arnaud Mehl & Carolin Nerlich, 2004. "The acceding countries’ strategies towards ERM II and the adoption of the euro - an analytical review," Occasional Paper Series 10, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  17. Cardamone, Paola, 2007. "A survey of the assessments of the effectiveness of Preferential Trade Agreements using gravity models," Working Papers 7282, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Luca De Benedictis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2004. "Trade Potentials In Gravity Panel Data Models," ISAE Working Papers 44, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
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