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Endogeneity of Currency Areas and Trade Blocs: Evidence from the Inter-war Period

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Ritschl, Albrecht
Wolf, Nikolaus

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Abstract

Empirical research on the gravity model of international trade in the wake of Rose (2000) affirms that currency union formation doubles or triples trade. Currency unions could, however, also be established precisely because trade among their members was already high. In OLS estimation, this would cause endogeneity bias. The present Paper employs both fixed-effects and binary choice methods to trace endogeneity in the formation of historical currency arrangements. Studying the formation of currency blocs in the 1930s, we find strong evidence of endogeneity. We work with country-group fixed effects and find that already in the 1920s, trade within the later currency blocs was up to three times higher than average. The formal establishment of these blocs had only insignificant or even negative effects on the coefficients. We also employ a probit approach to predict membership in these later arrangements on the basis of data from the 1920s. Results are remarkably robust and again indicate strong self-selection bias. Evaluated against the control groups, treatment effects in the 1930s were mostly absent. Even the post-war currency arrangements are visible in the inter-war data. In line with the theory of optimum currency areas, our results caution against optimism over trade creation by currency unions.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4112.

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Date of creation: Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4112

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Related research
Keywords: currency blocs; endogeneity; gravity model; treatment effects;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
N70 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - General, International, or Comparative

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References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Marc Flandreau & Mathilde Maurel, 2005. "Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles in 19th Century Europe," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 135-152, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sergio de Nardis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2008. "The Euro's Effects on Trade in a Dynamic Setting," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 5(1), pages 73-85, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Heinemeyer, Hans Christian & Schulze, Max Stephan & Wolf, Nikolaus, 2008. "Endogenous Borders? Exploring a Natural Experiment on Border Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 6909, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Sergio de Nardis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2007. "The single currency’s effects on Eurozone sectoral trade: winners and losers?," ISAE Working Papers 88, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Keller, Wolfgang & Shiue, Carol Hua, 2008. "Tariffs, Trains, and Trade: The Role of Institutions versus Technology in the Expansion of Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 6759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Andrew Rose, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade," NBER Working Papers 10373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Sergio Nardis, 2004. "Currency unions and trade: The special case of EMU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 625-649, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Oliver Volckart, 2007. "Rules, Discretion or Reputation? Monetary Policies and the Efficiency of Financial Markets in Germany, 14th to 16th Centuries," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-007, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," NBER Working Papers 10480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Wolf, Nikolaus, 2008. "Scylla and Charybdis. Explaining Europe’s Exit from Gold, January 1928- December 1936," CEPR Discussion Papers 6685, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Luca De Benedictis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2005. "Hub-and-Spoke or Else? Free Trade Agreements in the Enlarged EU - A Gravity Model Estimate," Economics Working Papers 037, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes. [Downloadable!]
  11. Wolfgang Keller & Carol H. Shiue, 2008. "Institutions, Technology, and Trade," NBER Working Papers 13913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2007. "The “deeper” and the “wider” EU strategies of trade integration.An empirical evaluation of EU Common Commercial Policy effects," ISAE Working Papers 79, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
  13. Aditya Bhattacharjea, 2004. "IMPERIAL LEGACY The Persistence of Colonial Trade Patterns," Working papers 126, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Kirsten Wandschneider & Nikolaus Wolf, 2009. "Shooting on a Moving Target: Eyplaining European Bank Rates during the Interwar Period," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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