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One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade

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  • Rose, Andrew

    ()
    (Haas School of Busines)

Abstract

A gravity model is used to assess the separate effects of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international trade. The panel data set I use includes bilateral observations for five years spanning 1970 through 1990 for 1986 countires. In this data set, there are over one hundred pairings and three hundred observations, in which both countries use the same currency. I find a large positive effect of a currency union on international trade, and a small negative effect of exchange rate volatility, even after controlling for a host of features, including the endogenuous nature of the exchange rate regime. These effects are statistically significant and imply that two countires that share the same currency trade three times as much as they would with different curencies. EMU may thus lead to a large increase in international trade, with all that entails.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies in its series Seminar Papers with number 678.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: 01 Oct 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:iiessp:0678

Note: Preliminary version
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Keywords: empirical; panel; union; country; exchange rate; volatility; gravity; model; data;

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References

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  1. Feenstra, Robert & Markusen, James R. & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Understanding the Home Market Effect and the Gravity Equation: The Role of Differentiating Goods," CEPR Discussion Papers 2035, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
  3. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 1995. "How wide is the border?," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 498, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. John F. Helliwell, 1996. "Do National Borders Matter for Quebec's Trade?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 507-22, August.
  5. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," CEPR Discussion Papers 1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Leamer, Edward E. & Levinsohn, James, 1995. "International trade theory: The evidence," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 26, pages 1339-1394 Elsevier.
  7. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-53, February.
  8. Murray, Christian J. & Papell, David H., 2002. "The purchasing power parity persistence paradigm," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19, January.
  9. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June.
  10. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei., 1993. "Emerging Currency Blocs," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley C93-026, University of California at Berkeley.
  11. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 1998. "Does Exchange Rate Stability Increase Trade and Capital Flows?," NBER Working Papers 6704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 1996. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," International Trade, EconWPA 9608001, EconWPA, revised 13 Jun 1997.
  13. Martin Feldstein, 1998. "The Political Economy of the European Economic and Monetary Union: Political Sources of an Economic Liability," NBER Working Papers 6150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
  15. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
  16. Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-15, May.
  17. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August.
  18. Feldstein, Martin, 1991. "Does one market require one money?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-84.
  19. Benjamin J. Cohen, 1993. "Beyond Emu: The Problem Of Sustainability," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 187-203, 07.
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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Le aporie del più Europa
    by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2012-08-05 15:59:00
  2. Christmas shopping and currency unions
    by Johan Fourie in Johan Fourie's Blog on 2012-12-15 08:38:42
  3. Savonarola vs Paperoga: decrescita e endogenità delle aree valutarie ottimali
    by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2011-12-31 17:42:00
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